Posted on 06/04/2020 6:33:50 AM PDT by LS
Hi all, Just a few thoughts and info on where we are.
First, much of America is opening up with a lot of stupid regs, but I think these will fade by July. I’ve already seen Papa John’s workers without masks, though I still see a lot of fearful people in grocery stores with masks. As I say, I expect the China Virus will be largely gone by July.
Second, the market has come roaring back. This is very important as Rush Limbaugh said yesterday. This time, the market is siding with Main Street and saying it believes in America. Earlier I had predicted we’d hit 26,000 by October. Well, we crossed 26,000 yesterday. Possibly we’ll cross 30,000 by October. Despite some sectors being badly hurt-—entertainment/Hollywood/concerts, sports/public events, airlines & oil-—most ag continued unabated as did mining, logging, while vast new work-from-home businesses expanded. One of my brand consultants was swamped, and one lady ran an 8,000 person Zoom meeting. Dunno how you do that. My son works in Med-tech with a CA company called Veeva that is just going nuts. His stocks soared. Other areas, including bicycle manufacturers, hiking and home workout equipment, online exercise classes, have exploded. Homeschooling has grown-—and this is my area-—though I’m seeing a small stream of sales (I think most homeschoolers this year are waiting til closer to August to buy because of money).
Unemployment requests fell under 2m today. We may cross that threshold & start adding jobs soon. Oil will rebound. Futures are already better. Rush had good comments the other day from some of his business friends who said that, yes, we can recover without NY or CA. In part, much of CA (ag, mining, oil) was never “shut down.” Hollywood was already in a downward spiral. Banking to Asia can still be done in a lockdown. So we may be witnessing a major economic shift away from the coasts.
In short, the DemoKKKrat attempted sabotage of the economy failed. It will be growing by October. Maybe not exploding, but will definitely be growing. The “right track” question on Rasmussen only dropped 1 point during this whole time. That’s key.
Second, as for the riots, many people use the “Insurrection Act” of 1807 to say Trump can just send in troops to LA or NYC if he wants to. Yes and no. Legally, he may have the authority. But historically and practically, no president in history has EVER sent in troops without the request of a gov with only two exceptions, and both involved Civil Rights. Both in Alabama under George Wallace and in 1957 in Little Rock, presidents (Kennedy and Ike) either sent in federal troops or nationalized the Guard to provide protection for black students attending college/school. Ike had a court order from a federal judge. But both had the broader “Brown v Bd of Education” ruling from the US Supreme court making clear this was federal policy.
The practical problems with sending in the troops without a gov/mayor’s request is that you put the troops in the possible position of working AGAINST police. Certainly they would get no support from the police. It also means you would make police forces take sides as to following the feds or their mayor (and many of course are there with the govs & mayors). It would be a VERY dangerous situation. And remember our military is NOT designed to be a police force. The military exists to kill people and break things. Yes, it “can” police, the same way you can use an electric band saw to cut a steak. But that’s not its purpose. ANY TIME you use the military for other than their purpose they are not as effective and you create trouble. (”building schools” and “peacekeepers”). We see what has happened to US “peacekeepers.”
My guess is that Trump will continue to force the govs into either enforcing their own laws or begging him for help. Until they do so, I don’t think he’ll send in troops.
While my heart goes out to honest citizens of some of these cities, the fact is the cities must be made to feel the pain of their choices. Unfortunately the pain falls on the just and the unjust. The just must be made to either move or become activists themselves who can expand their #S into enough to make a significant difference locally.
Finally, my own view is that the polls, just as they were in 2016, are horrifically off. I think Trump is at or over 50%; I think he is doing better in all the 2016 battleground states than he did in 2016. I would automatically add 5 points to Trump in any poll. Remember in 2016 the AVERAGE error in WI was 6 points!! This is huge. It means many pollsters were off by 7-8 points. No one had Trump winning MI or PA or WI. (Only Baris had him winning these, but he is never included in the RCP average).
Look for the GOP to move the convention to a friendly state without a dillweed gov; I expect Trump will hold at least one rally before the convention. Then it’s over. They will have failed massively to stop him on Twit (where he now has 81m followers, #7 on the list). They will have failed to stop the rallies.
And here’s the final takeaway: by rolling out Zero, W, Mattis, and McChrystal in the SAME WEEK it tells me they are phenomenally desperate and know they are losing huge. This is something you save for late October! The fact they had to use this now says they know Demented Biteme will lose huge.
Disagree. He should keep quiet on this. Let them twist in the wind and take the heat that would have invariably been directed at him..
If the residents complain, he should use "The rain falleth" thingy or the "He chose poorly" meme.
Perhaps "Play stupid games . . ."
Thank you for some much needed good news
Your mail “test” was received by me.
I saw Mc Sadly is down 13 pats in AZ. Kelly is a gun grabber and refuses to shake hands with a border agent and took money from China. Not a peep from her campaign. Got an e-mail trying to sell her book though. Pitiful and tragic for our state.
Thank you for posting this, Larry.
Easy Peasy. Do like my CEO does: Put everyone on mute. :) You are only off mute if you electronically 'raise your hand' to speak.
A friend of mine who was furloughed and applied for unemployment got called to go back to work last week. And then they called again and said, come in even earlier than we told you before!
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.