Posted on 05/12/2020 4:16:43 PM PDT by Lazamataz
The old chestnut, that American presidential elections are won on the fullness of the people's wallets, has been proven over the centuries to be accurate. The economy often influences whether an incumbent president, seeking re-election, will prevail and gain a subsequent term.
The global Covid-19 response is leading many to think that the world is facing a deep depression. The economy, being hobbled in a serious way, will be down quite a bit. That, muse pundits across the political spectrum, is likely to cause President Trump to fail in his bid to be re-elected.
While in normal times, this may be a reasonable conclusion, I'd like to offer another perspective: That this crisis may, in fact, help President Trump get his second term.
This crisis is perceived to be so severe as to be akin to wartime. In wartime, history shows us that no President has been defeated during a war. In two cases -- Truman and Johnson -- the attempt to be re-elected was abandoned, but not one time has a president been defeated during ongoing hostilities.
Abraham Lincoln had an illuminating quip that explained the phenomenon: "It is not best to swap horses while crossing the river. This quote succinctly captures the reason people may tend toward the safe choice, the known quantity. People don't want to be surprised by a new direction by a new leader, in most cases. As a piece of supporting evidence, look at the fact that President Trump's approval ratings are at an all-time high.
I take the opposite view offered by the mainstream press. I believe that President Trump has a very good chance to be re-elected, and I believe that this stems in no small part to the fear of adopting a new leader during this time of hardship.
Your opinion, I respect, sir. You have an innate grasp of voter fundamentals. It makes me happy that you think Trump will win 2020.
True, but not yet.
Further, Trump seems to have cross-sectional appeal.
By the 1920 election, Wilson was in full-drooling mode as he had had a stroke the year before.
I *am* insane. Utterly.
to a journalist writing an editorial where each paragraph builds on the previous one and culminates in a very persuasive well put-together argument
Thank you!
- in a split seconds time.
I pride myself on my brevity. Some people like to write for number of words; I like to write to minimize them.
An aside: It appears my reputation in Atlanta is solid enough that I am being actively recruited by several groups, even though I am well-situated.
Example: I've been contacted by two people in the CDC who know my work, who want me back. They have COVID grant money; they trust me. I won't go. Private business pays about 20-30k more than Federal Contracting or even direct Federal hire.
Still, it was flattering.
Um.
I wish I had spoken to you before writing this. Your brilliant thoughts should have been included in my essay. Well done.
Interesting observation. I like it.
“My only fear is the economy.”
Mine is election fraud.
Bump
It is not publicized but there have been attempts to assassinate him that have been dealt with. My fear for him and our America is that the desperate globalists will become so desperate that they will make an attempt that murders a lot of people in their attempt. Paul Wellstone comes to mind. The globalist oligarchy is completely evil. The will slaughter untold numbers to accomplish their goals. Bill gates will not be denied his goal to track every Western person ... look up, Bro, our deliverer is drawing neigh.
I think elections are always a referendum on the last president.
FDR won his first term in 1932 during the 3rd year of the Great Depression . He won his 2nd term in 1936 with the Depression still raging.
I think voters were judging FDR as ‘not at fault’ for the continuing terrible economy, largely because the Republicans were in power when it started and didn’t offer a convincing solution in 1936.
Whatever the reason, a bad economy didn’t equal an election loss in 1936 or in 1940.
I doubt that voters are blaming Trump for the current economy since it’s global and no one saw the pandemic coming. And it’s not like Democrats are convincing anyone that their current love affair with Authoritarian Socialism is an answer that anyone wants.
People dont like to be reminded of bad times.
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zer0/Biden was the worst time in recent memory.
As bad as the prog-led lockdown continuation is, zer0/Biden was worse by many magnitudes.
Anyway, the government spending now dwarfs what it was under Obama. Unfortunately.
I like to write to minimize them.
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As did Hemingway and Elmore Leonard.
Good company.
I agree 100%, Laz. Trump has handled this crisis in a superb fashion. He gives daily briefings that are so effective the mainstream media stopped covering them! LOL! I love watching him take down the media, one guy one, particularly Jim Acosta. Our president is truly great LOL!
...the economy had tanked right before he got into office, so he was starting with low expectations and a low starting point.
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So frustrating. The market swoon was directly correlated to a predicted zer0 win and accelerated between election and inauguration. The progs are as lucky as they are culpably evil.
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