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The core group of President Trump's electoral win 2016 was: Georgia, Alabama, Texas, Louisiana, Arkansas, Tennessee, North Carolina, South Carolina, Mississippi, and Florida.

"Core group" is subjective. Texas, Florida and probably North Carolina, and Georgia are key states, but Arizona, Ohio, Indiana or Missouri carries more Electoral College weight than any of those other states.

The key for Trump, though, was carrying Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan. I believe Dole, McCain, and Romney carried most of those Southern states and still lost the election.

If he were to lose these core states, his reelection chances would be bleak.

Sure, and if the Democrats lost Vermont, Hawaii, Massachusetts and Maryland, their chances would be bleak too. But it's not those states or the reliably Republican ones that decide the election. It may be flattering to think it's all about a battle of values, but voting is at once more complex and simpler than that.

“The key for Trump, though, was carrying Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan.”

I acknowledged those dynamics in my previous post:
“If the President can duplicate the vote in these defiant conservative states - and somehow convince the voters in several other states to buy into American values - he will win again.”

jeffersondem: "The core group of President Trump's electoral win 2016 was: Georgia, Alabama, Texas, Louisiana, Arkansas, Tennessee, North Carolina, South Carolina, Mississippi, and Florida."

x: "The key for Trump, though, was carrying Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan. I believe Dole, McCain, and Romney carried most of those Southern states and still lost the election."

Before 1860 Pennsylvania was pretty reliably Democrat, flipping only to help elect Whig Presidents Harrison & Tyler (both slaveholders).
From 1860 Pennsylvanians voted reliably Republican until FDR's reelection in 1936 -- yes, we voted for Hoover over FDR in 1932!
But in 1948 we flipped back to Dewey over Truman and since then have pretty reliably picked the winner -- Eisenhower, Kennedy, Johnson, Nixon, Carter, Reagan, Bush I & Clinton.
Then we went for loser Democrats Gore & Kerry before falling for winner Obama, twice, and then amazingly, Donald Trump!

Where we're going this year is anybody's guess -- my region of rural PA votes around R+60, while Philadelphia (where some of my daughters live) runs D+40, so who's going to vote and how much cheating will Democrats do?

Of course I'm not claiming that Pennsylvania is a bit more important than any other state, far from it, I'm only saying that since 1952 Pennsylvanians have voted for every winner except George W. Bush, don't ask me how that works, I have no clue.