Actually, it is working.
If the virus were spreading at its initial rate of growth, there would now be around 26.4 million cases worldwide. The actual number of cases is 3.6 million. That means that actual cases are 86% below what would have happened without social distancing policies.
I have a more difficult time predicting what would have happened in the US without social distancing, because I do not have early numbers for the US, and cases in the US result from multiple introductions of virus into the country. This skews the data terribly. That said, I still see a significant drop in the spread of US cases. If this trend continues, we will eliminate Covid-19 in the US.
Can you show your math work on this?
I would expect cases to increase as the lockdown ends and social distancing ends....
“That means that actual cases are 86% below what would have happened without social distancing policies.”
We don’t know this to be true, it is conjecture based on the same “modelers” who claim global warming is a disaster in the making.