Ultimately, there is one unescapable conclusion that must be acknowledged when using 1918 as a blueprint for today. Only the completely delusional would conclude that the COVID-19 epidemic is as deadly as the Spanish flu. In fact, it’s a whole order of magnitude less so.
The Spanish flu claimed 675,000 American lives out of a population of 106.5 million (6,338 deaths per million), whereas COVID-19, even in the current worst-case IHME projection, will barely exceed 5% that figure: 114,000 deaths out of 331 million, or 344 deaths per million. The more likely middle projection of ~74,000 deaths would yield a rate of only 223 per million, which is proportionally less than Spain, France, Italy, and the UK. Of the large EU states, only Germany will have fared better.
Said otherwise, the Spanish flu’s death rate of 6,338 deaths per million is almost as high as the total death rate in America today, which is 8,638 per million. We are not talking apples and oranges, but apples and watermelons.
When smaller, less densely populated states consider how to proceed, this data should not be lost on them. As mentioned earlier, over 20% of the entire nationwide death toll of COVID-19 belongs to New York City. A century ago, New York was also the most populous city and had the highest death toll.
But New York’s deaths accounted for less than 4% of the total. The top 20 cities during the Spanish flu had an combined death rate of just under 5,000 per million. The rest of the country was at about 6,600 per million. Compare that to COVID-19, in which the top 20 cities have a combined death rate of 507 per million, versus the rest of the country at approximately 150 per million.
Not only is the disease an order of magnitude less deadly overall, but rural communities are much, much, safer than they were in 1918.
Plus we have a greater lock down on CV than we did on the spanish flu. We also have far better medical care.
It's hard to say what the CV death toll would look like if we responded the same way we did in 1918 and with the same medical care. But the toll would be a lot higher than it is now.
“Not only is the disease an order of magnitude less deadly overall, but rural communities are much, much, safer than they were in 1918.”
Nice summation and presentation of data. REFRESHING!
And yet, he still say to “follow all the federal guidelines”.
He made a great case, then wimped out at the end.
For the Wuhan virus to have the same impact as the Spanish flu, the death toll in the US would have to be in the neighborhood of 2 million.