THE POWER LINE SHOW, EP 183: DO LOCKDOWNS SAVE LIVES? THE DATA SAY FOR MANY PLACES, NO

Powerline ^ | April 27,2020 | BY STEVEN HAYWARD

[Hojczyk]

The Wall Street Journal this morning includes an article by T.J. Rodgers, the retired founder and CEO of Cypress Semiconductors, with the provocative title, “Do Lockdowns Save Lives? In Most Places, the Data Say No.” Rodgers mentions in the first paragraph that much of the statistical work behind his article was done by our own Joe Malchow, who is Power Line’s Wizard of Oz behind the curtain who keeps up the tech side of the site.

I’ve been wanting an excuse to do a podcast with Joe for the longest time, and so here it is. In addition to going through the statistical evidence we have already that the total lockdown in most states doesn’t bear a lot of relation to the infection outcomes, we also talk about Sweden’s choice of an intermediate path, with only light shutdowns and quarantines, and with results that are better than many hard hit U.S. states and European countries, and worse than some others. If trends continue and Sweden remains in the middle of the statistical distribution, it will be a massive reproach to the total and prolonged shutdowns that are crippling our economy, and may come to be seen as the single most costly economic mistake in American history.

And finally, as a fellow inmate of Krazifornia, we look at how the state is likely to bungle its economic recovery. All you need to know is that our sainted Gov. Newsom has appointed Tom Steyer to head the committee to make plans. You can expect it to include solar powered suppositories.

You know what to do now: listen here or download from our hosts at Ricochet, or from your favorite podcast platform.

[NobleFree]

From the WSJ article: “Our correlation coefficient for per-capita death rates vs. the population density was 44%. That suggests New York City might have benefited from its shutdown—but blindly copying New York’s policies in places with low Covid-19 death rates, such as my native Wisconsin, doesn’t make sense.” - https://www.wsj.com/articles/do-lockdowns-save-many-lives-is-most-places-the-data-say-no-11587930911

[spintreebob]

If one listens closely, one realizes that most people who argue for sheltering and social distance do not claim to be reducing the death toll.

They claim to FLATTEN THE CURVE. Think of the typical bell curve. It has a single peak when there is high demand. In this case, high demand for hospital beds and professional attention.

The goal of social distancing is to have the same number of cases. But instead of a high peak, there will be a long high plateau. This will lessen the peak demand for hospital beds. It will not save any lives .... unless the doctors can perform miracles or learn more about this virus and how to treat it.