See that turning over in UK from the exponential growth to flat daily death rate - that is social distancing working.
Posted on 04/18/2020 7:39:25 AM PDT by Hojczyk
The UK government has extended its lockdown for another three weeks. But could the shutdown of society be doing more harm than good? Dr John A Lee, a recently retired professor of pathology and NHS consultant pathologist, has repeatedly called for a critical and dispassionate examination of the evidence in relation to Covid-19, raising questions about the government and its advisers’ interpretation of the data. spiked caught up with him to find out more.
Lee: The figures are just so unreliable. It’s very difficult to understand when you are looking at figures from different countries, and figures in isolation about things like death, what they really mean. And obviously, if we can’t understand what the figures mean, it is quite difficult to then know what we should do about them.
These figures are then fed into models of the disease and the epidemic which are being used to influence and inform public policy. But those models are only as good as their input data and the assumptions they make. And there are so many unknowns which means the models’ outputs are really quite questionable. And given that we have now got ourselves into this situation, for a variety of reasons, getting ourselves out of it using the same models and predictions is even more questionable. So we are in a very difficult situation.
The real point is that there isn’t any direct evidence that what we are doing is actually affecting the peak. It is possible to make arguments that sound reasonable that a lockdown should affect the peak. And yet other places which are doing different things seem to have similarly shaped graphs. It is only an assumption that the lockdown is having a big effect on the virus spread, but this is not a known scientific fact.
(Excerpt) Read more at spiked-online.com ...
Although with my social life there are some weekends I couldn't tell if I was in lockdown or not.
(also fun asking the same thing from the warmists)
Lockdowns are an uncalled for scam. The virus will not die and go away, people will still catch it, some will die, especially those with risk factors. A vaccine will not prevent it either, witness the seasonal flu number with a vaccine.
This was never the Black Death, or even close. It does not reach the level of the 1918 flu, the swine flu, or the seasonal flu.
We allowed the BS advice of a few “experts” models based on wild assumptions and predictions of half to 2/3 of the population dying if we didn’t isolate.
No critical thinking about the data, just blind following.
Without a control group, the current Rx is just another good try.
Dr Gogeo has decided that the cure is now officially worse than the disease.
The lockdowns are working. They are designed to crush the capitalist economy so that communist agitators can declare the failure of capitalism and then propose communism to a desperate, starving, freezing populous in November. Remember, capitalism didn’t fail; the government outlawed it. But if Democrats win in November, then the lockdowns shall have worked, for America will be a Maoist bastion, and free society shall vanish from this earth.
Everyone thinks if you get exposed to the virus that you automatically get sick; therefore, if you are not sick then you haven’t been exposed.
See that turning over in UK from the exponential growth to flat daily death rate - that is social distancing working.
What many don't understand is that there is no evidence that the mandated lockdowns contributed significantly to reducing the area under the "infection curve"; that is, we still don't know the level of influence forced isolation and anti-social distancing have had on reducing the total number of infections, and because we "spread out" the rate of infection, we won't know this for a longer time and we will undoubtedly see a few spikes as people are "allowed" to leave their homes.
Well, China got those anti-communist protesters off the street and the American communists got to destroy Trump’s economy and stop his stadium appearances.
The left got what they wanted and we were willing participants. Besides, we got $1,200, right?
“that is social distancing working.”
It could also be the bug just ain’t that infectious and people gain immunity to it.
If you ever studied science then you would have learned that coincidence isn’t causation.
The flu mutates a lot which makes permanent vaccination impossible. On top of that only three or so varieties are picked months ahead as the likely breakout flu for the year. That's like picking the Super Bowl winner in April. Sure the Bengals or Browns aren't worth picking, but do you pick Tampa Bay because of the recent Brady mutation?
Other more stable viruses like measles or polio get much better results. Now how fast will the current coronavirus mutate or split into varieties? Who knows.
Mrs Clamper and I went out to our favorite neighborhood bar last night to have a “few” adult beverages and dinner. There were about 20 people in the bar and we dined in. Yes Arizona is supposed to be on “stay at home” but we have 18 cases of C19 in a town of ~55000 ... we are NOT worried and neither were anyone else in the bar. Hugs and handshakes were given among most. Bottomline ... people at least in this town are getting fed up with the BS and are beginning to engage in social disobedience. Law enforcement did not seem concerned about it either. I will up date my status on FR in 14 days. If my wife or I get sick I will post it ... if we don’t then I will post that as well.
“A shutdown is a broadly destructive solution, to a problem that could have been solved with far more targeted approaches!"
Quarantines only work to keep a small amount of sick people from going out and spreading the disease!
They don’t work to keep the vast majority of healthy people locked inside.
Thanks to HotHunt for this great visual!
We actually do know. The Ro was knocked down from somewhere around 6 to a little over 1 in the last 5 weeks or so specifically by our mitigation efforts. The disconcerting thing is we continued to have viral spread even under pretty harsh efforts. Which doesn’t mean “it’s not working” but certainly not working as well as we might like. We did increase the “doubling time” from 2.6 days to some 6 days for a while. Now the data nationally is the summed total of umpteen separate epidemics in Major Urban centers so the national #s average in all those separate epidemics which all have fairly typical epidemic curves but averaged together with an entire country of almost no illness we get the curve you see in # of new deaths daily.
It almost seems that we will continue to get some 2,000 new deaths daily for a while, at least until NYC actually quits contributing to the deaths.
We’re still allowing Chinese nationals to fly in on foreign carriers.
Why the heck are Americans locked down?
I heard some radio doctor say this was the most infection virus he's ever seen. BS. This, with no herd immunity had an basic reproduction rate of around 2 new victims for each current one, similar to the flu (although Wikipedia has a higher top end). I've seen numbers of around 18 for the measles without vaccination. If this was like the measles we would be having mass burials around the world because we wouldn't have time for embalming and building caskets.
Sweden has its $h!t in one sock. We need to go full Sweden.
The CDC has been collecting test results showing at least half the population was infected enough to gain antibodies, meaning this bug is a yawner. We’ve all been exposed to this bug. People act like mere contact with it means we die.
Be glad you went to a friendly bar and not a friendly church.
In Californicator land, you could have been arrested for being on church property before you got into the church.
Or if you tried to play golf with 3 friends even 6’ apart, you could have been arrested.
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