[scouter]

36,842 / (36,842 + 59,328) = .383, or 38.3%
36,842 / (36,842 + (52,328 * 10)) = 36,842 / (36,842 + 523,280) = .073, or 7.3%
36,842 / (36,842 + (52,328 * 50)) = 36,842 / (36,842 + 1,842,100) = 0.14, or 1.4%
36,842 / (36,842 + (52,328 * 85)) = 36,842 / (36,842 + 4,447,880) = .008, or 0.8%

gas_dr, I'm not twisting anything. The numbers are what they are. Take them or leave them, as you will.

I limited my calculations to closed cases because that's how the case fatality rate is calculated. The mortality rate, which includes currently active cases is a different statistic, with a different meaning.

See https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-rate/:

An alternative method, which has the advantage of not having to estimate a variable, and that is mentioned in the American Journal of Epidemiology study cited previously as a simple method that nevertheless could work reasonably well if the hazards of death and recovery at any time t measured from admission to the hospital, conditional on an event occurring at time t, are proportional, would be to use the formula:

CFR = deaths / (deaths + recovered)

[gas_dr]

But the assumption of case closed is artificial and does not meet the clinical picture. Your numbers calculate through. But we all know there is a reticence to declare a case resolved. It makes no sense clinically. So while your math is technically correct your baseline assumption (n my judgment) is flawed.

Further and I can’t believe I am saying this as a clinician....the death rate recently has been artificially inflated. In New York 3000+ cases were added without lab testing. This is a manipulation pure and simple

All that being said I think the final number once studied will be .1%

[impimp]

Multiply the 85 by the number of cases minus the deaths....you get less than a tenth of a percent fatality.