But the assumption of case closed is artificial and does not meet the clinical picture. Your numbers calculate through. But we all know there is a reticence to declare a case resolved. It makes no sense clinically. So while your math is technically correct your baseline assumption (n my judgment) is flawed.
Further and I can’t believe I am saying this as a clinician....the death rate recently has been artificially inflated. In New York 3000+ cases were added without lab testing. This is a manipulation pure and simple
All that being said I think the final number once studied will be .1%
I am going with “4% nationwide” infected & recovered in the past or currently infected...have read several studies that indicate the “range guess” of 3-5% infected nationwide which yields about 13.64 million people. Using the current fatality count that yields a “fatality rate” of 0.27%...about 2x as bad as a bad regular flu year. My guess as to the rate a year from now...I am going with 0.18%, somewhat worse than the bad flu year of 2017-2018. The “4% infected nationwide” number will rise with time driving down the “fatality rate”. Need way more antibody testing to make these numbers more accurate.
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.14.20062463v1