Standard view is that “it would have been worse in the US but we successfully mitigated the danger through isolation”.
But I think that is really coming into question. There is evidence that isolation and the economic shutdown did little or nothing to help. Other countries did not shutdown and don’t seem to have suffered more from the disease. So it may be reasonable to see COVID19 as a flu season significantly less serious than the 2017 flu season.
If we open back up, I don’t think the sky will fall. And I do think the economy will explode in a very good way.
Yup, we can all expect the story of the kid ringing the small bell in the middle of town to "keep the tigers away." Because, of course, the isolation is what kept the deaths away.