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The Coronavirus Pandemic: Where We Stand Now. It appears to be peaking, both globally and in the U.S
Powerline Blog ^ | 04/11/2020 | John Hinderaker

Posted on 04/11/2020 8:25:34 PM PDT by SeekAndFind

The Wuhan virus appears to be peaking, both globally and in the U.S. The much-maligned University of Washington IHME model says that U.S. deaths should have peaked today, and are expected to decline hereafter. Given that model’s track record, no one is taking it to the bank. But it is an opportune moment to see where we stand today, in terms of fatalities, in the context of other diseases.

I have posted this chart, now updated with today’s numbers, several times before. It is simple: it shows, from left to right, the average number of annual deaths attributed to the seasonal flu, worldwide, according to the World Health Organization; the number of global COVID-19 deaths to date, per the same organization; the number of deaths attributed to seasonal flu in the U.S. two years ago, the 2017-2018 season; and U.S. COVID-19 deaths to date. Click to enlarge:

Worldwide, the COVID-19 fatalities add up to just under 20% of an average flu season. In the U.S., COVID-19 fatalities to date are 26% of the number that we suffered just two flu seasons ago. I am not sure why these numbers are not more widely known. They seem relevant to me.

Crudely speaking, if we assume that the U.S. is around 50% of the way through the COVID-19 epidemic, we might expect something like 33,000 fatalities, equal to an average seasonal flu year. An inevitable second round of infections after our governments finally let people go back to work, and out in public, may raise that number, but no one I know of has tried to guess to what extent. Still, any way you look at it, it is hard to see how COVID-19 deaths will exceed the flu fatalities we experienced two years ago. And that was barely a news story.

A final thought: What will happen when the catastrophic shutdown orders under which most of us have been living are finally lifted, in May or June? Since sheltering in place was only intended to delay the virus’s spread, not to prevent it, we should assume that COVID infection and death numbers will rise dramatically. But what if they don’t? Won’t that be strong evidence that the states’ extreme shutdown measures were not needed in the first place? Don’t expect any politicians to make the point, but I think the answer is Yes.

UPDATE: Last time I posted these numbers, I included a global fatality number that assumes China is vastly underreporting its deaths, as most believe. I will do that again: if China is underreporting by a factor of 10–i.e., the true Chinese number is 10 times the one being used by the WHO–then the current global fatality total is 26% of an average flu season, per the WHO.



TOPICS: Health/Medicine; History; Society
KEYWORDS: coronavirus; pandemic
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To: eastexsteve

Where is here


21 posted on 04/11/2020 10:01:44 PM PDT by Nifster (I see puppy dogs in the clouds)
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To: eastexsteve

Not t true


22 posted on 04/11/2020 10:02:47 PM PDT by Nifster (I see puppy dogs in the clouds)
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To: eastexsteve

The predicted peak is two weeks away and that’s probably wrong too


23 posted on 04/11/2020 10:07:12 PM PDT by Nifster (I see puppy dogs in the clouds)
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To: SeekAndFind

It’s peaking in Michigan. New cases have been flat for 3 days runnimg. That’s a solid trend.

CC


24 posted on 04/11/2020 10:11:45 PM PDT by Celtic Conservative (My cats are more amusing than 200 channels worth of TV)
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To: SeekAndFind
This is just a guess, but based on his screen name he's in East Texas.🤠

CC

25 posted on 04/11/2020 10:14:36 PM PDT by Celtic Conservative (My cats are more amusing than 200 channels worth of TV)
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To: SeekAndFind; All

Good post, article and thread. Thanks.

They exhumed JFK’s body yesterday and despite the head wounds, it was determined by a professional medical examiner that he died of CoVid-13.

Happy Easter to all.


26 posted on 04/11/2020 10:17:19 PM PDT by PGalt
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To: PGalt

VERY VERY FUNNY LOL, LOL,!!! While they have him exhumed they might as well have him vote also!!!


27 posted on 04/11/2020 10:20:03 PM PDT by Trump Girl Kit Cat (Yosemite Sam raising hell)
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To: Sicon

Fearbros would be WRONG because the models were done WITH mitigation in place biggest farce ever hoisted on the American people!!!


28 posted on 04/11/2020 10:22:28 PM PDT by Trump Girl Kit Cat (Yosemite Sam raising hell)
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To: SeekAndFind

After this HUGE farce I wonder just how many people will EVER believe the media again?? How many HUGE lies will the American people tolerate!!


29 posted on 04/11/2020 10:24:03 PM PDT by Trump Girl Kit Cat (Yosemite Sam raising hell)
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To: Artcore

Have a coworker who was sick for about 10days in February. She is sick again and has many of the symptoms but since she is under 60 she could not be tested in Houston.

The numbers that are being reported are way off.


30 posted on 04/11/2020 10:48:24 PM PDT by Jaded (Pope Francis? Not really a fan... miss the last guy who recognized how Islam spread... the sword.)
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To: Artcore

It will go down as one of the greatest scams of ANY century!!!

And I thought Russia Collusion and Ukraine Quid pro Quo scams were bad...

Trump has to be the greatest president in US history to overcome three GOAT scams in three years in office


31 posted on 04/12/2020 1:38:47 AM PDT by RonnG (')
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To: Trump Girl Kit Cat
they might as well have him vote also!!!

He probably has been.

32 posted on 04/12/2020 1:48:16 AM PDT by Mark17 (Father of US Air Force Officer in pilot training. Flew the DA-20 and T-6. One more aircraft to go.)
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To: SeekAndFind
"...should have peaked today..."

Gosh...they have a down to the minute model now...

33 posted on 04/12/2020 4:27:35 AM PDT by trebb (Don't howl about illegal leeches, or Trump in general, while not donating to FR - it's hypocritical.)
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To: Trump Girl Kit Cat

It will go down as one of the greatest scams of ANY century!!

I firmly believe this. YES, it’s a terrible flu and people are dying. Be safe by all means, yet to continue to destroy the economy and people’s basic rights because of .1% of the entire US population being infected (with most recovering) is completely BS. This is a complete scam. Don’t believe me, then why are liquor stores, pot shops, etc.. open, but churches are not.


34 posted on 04/12/2020 7:02:46 AM PDT by krug
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