Posted on 04/11/2020 1:35:36 PM PDT by Hojczyk
With respect to Iowa, South Dakota and North Dakota, IHME’s projections appear to be entirely speculative, because those states have experienced hardly any fatalities, let alone the relatively elevated rate that IHME predicts. IHME’s theory is that the fatalities are going to begin any day now. This, for example, is its projection for South Dakota, which so far has a grand total of six deaths, per IHME:
To be fair, IHME could be right. It is possible that COVID-19 is coming later to more rural states like Iowa, North Dakota and South Dakota. Maybe if we wait another week, deaths will begin to appear at the rate predicted by this model.
This will be an interesting development to watch. South Dakota’s governor, Kristi Noem, is one of the more impressive people in public life. On April 1, she conducted a press conference which you can see here. While encouraging social distancing and other voluntary measures, Noem said that Americans are a free people who value their independence and are fully competent to take appropriate measures to protect themselves. She therefore declined to close down businesses or issue a stay-home order.
That attitude is all too rare among America’s governors, and is the exact opposite of the one held by Minnesota’s Governor Tim Walz. While, as I said, IHME’s model is opaque and contradictory, that organization apparently believes that South Dakota will pay a price for standing up for freedom, along with North Dakota and Iowa. Let’s check back in a week or two and see whether that prediction turns out to be true.
(Excerpt) Read more at powerlineblog.com ...
If that graph is right, there will be 12 deaths per day at the most. I think the hospitals can handle that. If they keep the old folks homes quarantined, they will be fine. Hospitals will easily cope. And the virus will pass without more than flu like affects.
Check any state you want in the drop down in the green banner; https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america
Note that the model simply lies about how much Iowa is shut down!
Just FYI, most Iowa deaths are related to two nursing homes struck by the virus.
Check IHME model historical projections here; https://web.archive.org/web/*/https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections
[4/7/2020]
“Sioux Falls residents will have to wait at least a few more weeks until their next drink at a bustling bar or a burger inside a busy restaurant.
City Councilors voted unanimously Tuesday to extend the deadline of occupancy restrictions placed on select business in the city two weeks ago, limiting them from having more than 10 patrons on their properties at any given time.
The restrictions, aimed at slowing the spread of COVID-19 in the community, were set to expire Wednesday. But with cases in Minnehaha and Lincoln Counties continuing to rise, Mayor Paul TenHaken and the Sioux Falls Health Department successfully lobbied to move the sunset date out to April 22.”
The cases and deaths for CA are also tracking below the initial, dire estimates, per the daily chart in my local paper. They revised their projections and we are still at the bottom of the expected range. If the goal is to slow the pace, so hospitals can keep, that’s happening here. So time to plan for the reopening for business and public life in general!
Thank God for a vary wise, competent Governor who actually knows what the constitution is about
There are lies, damn lies and then there are statistics. But nothing beats projections.
Bkmrk.
NYC is a mess because they have a criminally negligent mayor who poo pooed this as late as a month ago, and they are filled with idiots who continue to pile into subway cars like sardines. That’s not what they’re doing in Sioux Falls, and Gov. Kristy Noem is wise to refuse to enact Fascist Fauci’s extreme measures.
Local government is a generally sound way to go. Especially is different governments are allowed to adapt to their own peculiar circumstances rather than everyone copying the previous idiot.
How far down the ‘authorities’ scale do a free people accept?
Counties, cities, towns, local school boards , home owners associations ?
IHME predictions, or desires? As in, gotta beat Orange Man Bad...
Where is that graph from? It looks like a graph Dr Doom would use to push the President to keep the country shut down until June which would a disaster. Is that what the weasel sent to the NYT behind Trump’s back?
I have read that hospitalization, ICU, ventilation or death statistics are not being kept with a category of nursing home residence. All statistics with possible relevance should be recorded and analyzed in order to make informed decisions about how and when to re-open the economy. Anything less should be considered unethical. This is no time for political correctness.
It’s from the IHME model, which Minnesoita didn’t use. See posts 5, 7, and 19.
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