[metmom]

So by May 20 you’re looking at 125,000 people a day dying from this?

Or is that the total deaths from the virus since it started?

[amorphous]

Or is that the total deaths from the virus since it started?

Correct, that's the total deaths projected for May 20, based on what I'm calling our DFR (daily fatality ratio) number at the time, last night, which was 10.9% and hitting a barrier of 3%, for the duration (i.e., until 20 May).

Keep in mind, these numbers are very dynamic and will change depending upon a number of factors. For example, tonight the US finally broke below 10% DFR, to 8.89%, which will remove approximately 10 - 15 thousands deaths off of that May 20, 125k number.

On Sundays we've been seeing a dip in the numbers immediately followed on Monday by a huge spike. Trying to predict far out, in this case 39 days from now, isn't going to produce very reliable numbers. Just too many factors constantly in flux. But that doesn't keep us from trying. :)

[amorphous]

So by May 20 you’re looking at 125,000 people a day dying from this?

After recalculating with yesterday's 8.89 ratio. The May 20# lowered to 111k from the previous 125k#. That's 39 days out, and very hard to predict accurately. On the 6th, I had estimated 27k for the 15th - currently the projection is 28k. Just like the DJIA, there are so many factors involved, it's impossible to predict even close to 100% accuracy.

With the above in mind, below is the latest projection using my "experimental metric". I'm now calling it, "Daily Fatality Index (DFI)" - I replaced ratio with index in the nomenclature, after some confusion over the use of Daily Fatality Index (DFR):

It's a work in progress. Suggestions/comments appreciated.

Yesterday was the fourth day of a downtrend.
Estimated deaths today: 1,796, down 61 from yesterday.

After looking at today's numbers on worldometers.info, we're already we're at +1,090. Today may see an uptick from yesterday.