[amorphous]

Such a gorgeous day outside here today, not a cloud in the sky, and the birds are all out singing. I just couldn't take the overwhelming serenity any longer and decided to go back inside to my computer, and mess around with projecting how many were going to die from Coronavirus in just a few short weeks - I know right!

Anyway, back to business. I noticed a glitch at the git-go of the most recent DFR (daily fatality ratio) projection I made and posted, so I found and fixed that. I then decided to project out for another 20 days into May, convinced, like Italy, Korea, and Spain, we will hit a barrier at some point where the virus is almost impossible to totally eradicate without a cure or vaccine. I continued past 30 April, 20 days, with a constant DFR of 3 (i.e., "the barrier").

What I saw in the graph was kind of shocking. Once a barrier is hit, the numbers appear to start going back up, and so does the curve. That might explain why Korea's numbers are going back up. Whoa..., I just hope it's another error on my part, but I don't currently believe that to be the case - your thoughts and comments much appreciated.

Just had to share this with y'all, as you never know what tomorrow may bring. Sorry for the less than happy update. Later...

DFR Graph with correction and additional 20 days projected:

[calenel]

Why are the daily deaths still going up in May? Shouldn’t we have peaked by then?

[LilFarmer]

You need an iPad where you can sit outside and deal with dreary (or happy, let’s pray for happier) numbers...

IN P>
avocado mask ingredients

https://coronavirus.in.gov/2393.htm

[chris37]

All I can say about it is that it really scary. I hope and pray this does not happen at all. Stupid virus!

Overwhelming serenity sounds blissful though. I think I’ll go outside a bit.

[mrsmith]

WEll, “the barrier” is a product the R0 we can do, and the IFR we can do.

Now we van affect the R0 but soon we will have to affect the IFR... or the deaths will indeed hit a barrier.
I don’t think we’ll do much more reduction in the R0- maybe some marginal reduction.

So.
Keep up the “social distancing” for now, but that’s only a temporary factor- the only one we could do at the time.
Medicine will have to solve the medical problems with the virus.
Not necessarily a vaccine- effective treatment would make a huge, and probably earlier, difference.

[mrsmith]

I should point out that the purpose of social distancing is to flatten the peak so the system isn’t overloaded which would drive up the IFR.
It’s accomplished that.
Hurray!

But it’s not the only game in town.

[metmom]

So by May 20 you’re looking at 125,000 people a day dying from this?

Or is that the total deaths from the virus since it started?

[bgill]

There will be an Easter spike.