[mrsmith]

Good, though frustrating, thread on the failure of the modelling.
https://twitter.com/BaldingsWorld/status/1248796814779637760
I blame it on unknowns and uncertainties.
What I liked about your graph is the relative certainty of it’s inputs.

[amorphous]

Thank you for the link and for the kind words!

You got me to thinking with your talk about a barrier, though I had been thinking along the same lines. Notice Italy with its gradual slope to a DFR of 3 on previous graph. So, what if we took Italy's slope and applied it to the US. And lets say in about 20 days, the US hits 3, Italy's number now - though frankly I'm not too sure the US will be that low in 20 days. Using that anyway, below is what our actual curve might look like, barring any errors on my part, and projected out for 20 days from today.

The peak in this projection is on the 23rd of April. And the 27+k on the 15th, closely matches a previous 27K projection on the 15th I had made on the 6th. I think the "peak" is going to be much flatter than the pros are predicting. What do you think, and how low of a DFR number do you think we realistically may be at by the 30th?

[blueplum]

REVEALED: There are TWO strains of coronavirus spreading in Australia - as the virus mutates to beat people’s immune systems

Type A is closest to the one found in bats and pangolins and has two sub-clusters
One sub-cluster linked to Wuhan and the other to Australia and the US
Type B is derived from type A and has become the most prevalent in Wuhan
Type C is the ‘daughter’ of type B and has been recorded in Sydney

The genetic history of the coronavirus was mapped from December 24 to March 4, revealing three distinct, but closely related, variants. Scientists believe the virus may be constantly mutating to overcome differing levels of immune system resistance in different populations

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8209837/There-TWO-strains-coronavirus-spreading-Australia.html

don’t know how this coorelates with the earlier talked about type S and type L