Daily Fatality Ratio(DFR). That should at least make it easier to address in the comments and etc. It's a really simple formula ((New Deaths / Total Deaths) x 100).
The projection made on Sunday, 6 April, of 17,328 deaths by COB April 10th, missed by an underestimated 1,419 fatalities. Worldometers.Info has an accumulated death toll for the US of 18,747 for today, April 10th.
The key DFR# I used in the projection calculation was from Sunday's, April 6, number which included a large dip, followed by Monday's significant spike. In hindsight, my projection would have been far more accurate if I had used the mean DFR of Saturday and Sunday. Just goes to show how these numbers balloon in just a few short days.
I had hoped the US would have broken below the 10% DFR level today. Unfortunately this didn't occur. Tonight the number is 10.86. The US must get this number down as soon as possible. It has a huge affect on our final death toll later on, as we've seen above.
Several Freepers observed regularly occurring irregularities in the data. These are Friday spikes and Sunday dips. The Sunday dip is what took out my projection for today. So please take this days into consideration when evaluating irregular graph lines. Many thanks to DoughtyOne, datura, Mariner, and others for discovering and pointing these irregularities out.
On a positive note, the US held its own today, and France had another nice drop after keeping its recent spike in check. It really is up to us to bring the US DFR down by practicing careful hygiene, distance, keeping trips to a minimum, and above all wear your PPE, including masks and eye protection.
Daily percentage of new Corona virus deaths to previous day's total by country. 25% = total deaths double every 3 days, 20% = every 4 days, 15% = every 5 days, 10% = about 1 week, 5% = about 2 weeks.