Posted on 04/10/2020 10:52:27 AM PDT by LilFarmer
Previous thread here: http://freerepublic.com/focus/f-chat/3833419/posts
Isn’t she (Acton) the one that said OH had 100,000 CV infected, and later walked it back?
As long as it’s in CONUS, and hopefully not all clustered in the same geographical area, it’s a win.
We’re not dependent on foreign governments for our retail supply chain anymore.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OQzTE18WcNI
Dr. Campbell interviewed a doctor in Iraq. Sounds very similar to here with people not staying home and very little testing. She said some deaths there from people drinking bleach. She doesn’t trust the tests. Says plasma is the way to go for a “cure” and hoping a vaccine will be available in ‘21. She is on board with Vit. D and, if I understood correctly, takes 5000 units a day.
“Lies, Damned Lies, and Medical Science”
“Much of what medical researchers conclude in their studies is misleading, exaggerated, or flat-out wrong. So why are doctors—to a striking extent—still drawing upon misinformation in their everyday practice? Dr. John Ioannidis has spent his career challenging his peers by exposing their bad science.”
- see https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2010/11/lies-damned-lies-and-medical-science/308269/
I posted earlier, I’m a big believer in Keto for the reasons you describe. I am trying it myself, but I have IBS so it is really hard to find anything I can eat on keto, as it also has to be low fodmap (most seed oils are out for me and dairy)
Do you wonder if that will change in the US? I mean, parents home with their children, monitoring the lessons, seeing firsthand whether their child is bored, struggling, fast, slow in grasping concepts, etc., quality of education, variety of education, opportunity for parental input in real time...?
Sea Change coming. Maybe not from the 20% apathetic, druggie, drunkie, abusive, dontcare parents, but from the other 80%.
“4-5% of pork production. How much will pork go up at the grocery store today? 20-30%? Smtihfield’s has several other Plants.”
Bet a lot of that pork was going directly to China, anyway.
I remember home-economics. Sewing, cooking, budgeting, even basic first aid. With a fashion show and bake sales that paid for some of the sewing and cooking supplies. Boys and girls in shop, metalworking, woodworking, framing, autoshopping. High school was a land of discovery instead of rote swallowing of information.
We read the Bible differently. Even the greatest national leaders in the Bible, including David and Solomon, were swayed from righteousness. Despite being flawed men, they did God's work, and I consider that a major point that the Bible was meant to convey.
As for the "imperfect translation", I've read the Greek and the Aramaic. The familiar translations have no serious errors. There are subtle shadings of meaning that can be debated, but the NIV, KJV, and the other standard translations say what the original said. I read "40 days in the wilderness" as 40 literal days in the wilderness - a common rite of passage in a spiritual journey.
It’s almost as though kids today aren’t meant to be self sufficient.
Thanks for that link. I’m going to enjoy it as well.
I think a good portion of us who had donor related stem cell transplants will say our lives have been forever altered. The chemo really did a number on me. But, there was no alternative. So, I’m grateful. Even tho I have my moments. I’m normally home 95% of the time. And even for me - this quarantine is getting old.
The way the math works, is estimates for a certain day are used in calculating the estimate for the following day, so yes, the future numbers build upon previous numbers.
But you used the present DFR for your estimate of the future deaths in your graph?
Yes, you can not get any more accurate numbers than the last reported actual numbers, of course that depends upon how accurate the data itself is. So nightly, I rerun the projection which corrects all numbers down the line based on the best available information. That's how hurricanes are tracked.
As to the uniqueness of the slope, and time length I feel okay in going with, only about 40 days now, I determine, by eyeballing, technical analysis of the US slope, and other country's slopes, and just a plain ol' SWAG of where I think 'the barrier' is and at what date we will hit it. I've arbitrarily plugged in 3% - probably a little too optimistic, and a date of 23 April, IIRC.
'The barrier' is what I saw countries like Korea, Italy, and Spain run into near lower DFI numbers.
For a week or two, these countries oscillated near the 3% level. This doesn't sound like much, until you realize it is an increase of 3% of total deaths every day, and that increase builds upon itself.
In Korea's case which has a low total number of those who have died from the corona virus, new death numbers aren't that high compared to Italy. In Italy's case the total number who have died is high. So even at a low 3% DFI, Italy's number of those who are still dying is very high indeed.
I believe we're going to see a similar pattern in the US. Our DFI, which is about 7% as of last night, is still high. The US is leading the world in number of deaths at 22,105 as of last night. IMO, that means the US may see large numbers dying, even at low DFI numbers.
The the law of exponential growth reasserts itself and numbers start growing rapidly again at 'the barrier'. No epidemiologist here, but to me, this could help explain what epidemiologists often see/call a resurgence.
To end on a positive note, Korea/Italy, are bumping down as low as 1.5% now. That is very encouraging. I want to add the above is from my own observation and YMMV. Let's pray a cure will be available very soon.
Dr. Amy Acton in action:
https://www.wkyc.com/article/news/health/coronavirus/who-is-ohio-public-health-director-dr-amy-acton/95-930c562c-30ea-4cc9-96d6-0cf3d384247f
your generalized statements are getting pretty wild, Thud.
The military doesn’t accept any candidates that have sickle cell.
China Quietly Reimposes Restrictions On Movement As Outbreak's 'Second Wave' Looms
:-)
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