This one is looking like the Peak Oil model.
Nobel Prize physicist Richard P. Feynman ,
““Science is the belief in the ignorance of experts.””
Why do. people make such stupid comments?
““Science is the belief in the ignorance of experts.””
Why do. people make such stupid comments?
All models that dictate public policy need to be open source. period.
Whenever you see a situation with complicated prediction models, you also have lots of room for bias to masquerade as reason.
Adams, Scott. Win Bigly: Persuasion in a World Where Facts Don’t Matter (p. 65).
This illustrates the inherent problem with making your best guess... It’s a guess. For every ‘guess’ that ends up correctly predicting a correct outcome, there are a thousand other guesses that ended up predicting an incorrect outcome.
And this is reason why ‘global warming / climate change’ will be dismissed as nonsense by intelligent politicians in the future. Unlike the sheeple politicians who currently subscribe to global warming predictions, politicians in the future will be able to point to this virus, it’s predictions and it’s outcomes to illustrate that scientific guessing is not worthy of taxation measures today to prevent unreliable scientific predictions of our future.
well the yearly flu models suck horribly at predicting what strains will be coming.
bookmark
Just a guess but I’d bet it’s just as inaccurate as climate modeling.
It is not just modelers that are the problem.
The real problem is having “official” modelers that are given the authority to be the only “experts” the government associates itself with.
The idea that merely by appointing person to “official” “expert” positions imbues those persons with an automatically superior position, in terms of their “expert” opinions, is illogical and irrational. And it is dangerous.
It is better to nurture an environment of many private “experts” with no “official” government association, allowing officials to hear diverse and opposing views before making decisions.