I admire people who can admit mistakes. The virus fooled almost all of us. China withheld much information.
That being said, it is not the Andromeda strain.
Absolutely, well said.
Novel corona is a Black Swan event.It is characteristic of a Black Swan that everyone rationalizes how he “coulda woulda shoulda” foreseen it.
And those rationales are false because there are always people crying “Wolf!” and prospectively, it’s hard to distinguish a good call of Wolf from a phony/erroneous one.
That being said, it is not the Andromeda strain.
____________________
Yep.
The Spanish flu pandemic of 2018 was far more deadly than this COVID virus. The economy was not shut down - and we survived quite nicely.
In 2008 there was the Black Swan of the Financial Crisis which did much to usher in the Obama landslide that November. There were warnings from people in the financial arena (Roubini) that were ignored or laughed at. I remember one on the Kudlow program in 2008 where panelists laughed in his face at his dire predictions. They were ignored. Secretary of the Treasury Hank Paulson (Goldman Sachs emeritus) bleated how nobody saw this coming. It was a complete lie.
Now a Black Swan in another Presidential election year. A serious influenza, not nearly as deadly as the 1918 Asian flu - mostly affecting the mortality of people with pre-existing conditions - shuts down an entire economy (which did not occur in 1918) with Stephen Moore saying last night we are on the precipice of another Great Depression.
2008 and 2020: Black Swans - both pinned to Republican Administrations by the Democrats and their propaganda machines referred to loosely as “the media.”
Sorry: something about this dog that just don’t hunt.