Corona Virus Daily Thread #37

[cgbg]

The conclusion of the PKD “New Zealand” experiment was that if someone really was highly motivated to believe that New Zealand did not exist, there was _no_ data, testimonials, or source of information that would convince them.

They would have a counter-argument to present about how people lie, and could even generate a conspiracy theory about why everybody was lying about this mythical place.

A visit to New Zealand was about the only thing that could convince them.

Nothing short of an actual visit to a NYC hospital (which of course would not be permitted to a casual observer) will convince some folks.

[LilFarmer]

OH
3,739 Confirmed Cases in Ohio
326 Number of ICU admissions
1,006 Number of Hospitalizations in Ohio
102 Number of Deaths
https://coronavirus.ohio.gov/wps/portal/gov/covid-19/home

S.D.
212 cases; 3 deaths
https://apnews.com/6888d076f87cfa35beafd7dcf10ea348

VT
COVID-19 Activity in Vermont
Information updated daily by 1:00 p.m. Numbers are preliminary and subject to change. Last updated: April 4, 2020.
Positive test results* 461**
Total tests conducted 5,844
Deaths+ 20
People being monitored 89
People who have completed monitoring 718
https://www.healthvermont.gov/response/infectious-disease/2019-novel-coronavirus

NE
321 cases; 6 deaths
https://nebraska.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/4213f719a45647bc873ffb58783ffef3

TX
6,110 Cases Reported
105Fatalities
https://txdshs.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/ed483ecd702b4298ab01e8b9cafc8b83

[LilFarmer]

Lol, I’d skip that floor

[nascarnation]

A local news person said in the past they get their Instacart order an hour after submitting it, was 2.5 days last week, now promised for five days.

[Mariner]

“Nothing short of an actual visit to a NYC hospital”

Even then there is subset that will insist it is all staged, just like the moon landing.

[semantic]

Well, for people who follow numbers, the IHME models are beginning to look a bit suspect.

The US recorded its first CV death 8 days after Italy. Being on a fairly conservative side, Italy therefore provides us with 8 days of tracking history. In actual experience, one would expect the US to perform (much) better, not worse.

Can you name some instances where the US would actually perform worse than Italy? This would assume we acted later than they did - even with their 8 day lead time, that our demographic morbidity was higher, and that our HCS was less capable. Those are all some pretty tenuous assumptions.

So, with this 8 day lead in mind, would you be surprised that Italy's daily CV mortality has now been flat for 15 days? And is 25% off its high reached 8 days ago?

Italy	       Day	
3/20/2020	29	627
3/21/2020	30	793
3/22/2020	31	650
3/23/2020	32	602
3/24/2020	33	743
3/25/2020	34	683
3/26/2020	35	712
3/27/2020	36	919
3/28/2020	37	889
3/29/2020	38	756
3/30/2020	39	812
3/31/2020	40	837
4/1/2020	41	727
4/2/2020	42	760
4/3/2020	43	766
4/4/2020	44	681

If we track the US to this trend line (using an 8 day lag on the growth rate %), we'll end up at 700 deaths on 4/16; not 2.8k In order for the US to hit 2.8k and trace out to 93K total deaths, we would need to disengage from our current pattern, and radically start climbing. In fact, we'd have to go back and adjust our lag with Italy by a full 18 days to reach the current IHME projections. Yes, the period where Italy was experiencing a full on emergency situation.

Graphically, it looks like this:

I know it, I think you know it, and soon the whole world will know that the IHME model needs to be revised.

[Pollard]

https://twitter.com/RealJamesWoods/status/1246499394653831169

How to make a multilayered mask from a bandana and two rubber bands

[cgbg]

The US is so complex.

Some areas were hit hard early (like WA and metro NY).

Other areas like CA, TX and FL are relatively untouched at this point.

I would not draw any conclusions until I saw CA, TX and FL numbers a couple of weeks from now.

[nascarnation]

CA is surprising to me given the number of Asians and volume of international travelers.

[Pollard]

Missouri Gov just put the State on stay-at-home orders until Apr 24th but I don’t think we’ll even be at our peak by then so he’s going to have to extend it.

[null and void]

I step away from the 'puter for just a couple minutes...

Bring Out Your Dead

Post to me or FReep mail to be on/off the Bring Out Your Dead ping list.

The purpose of the “Bring Out Your Dead” ping list (formerly the “Ebola” ping list) is very early warning of emerging pandemics, as such it has a high false positive rate.

The false positive rate was 100%.

At some point we may well have a high mortality pandemic, and likely as not the “Bring Out Your Dead” threads will miss the beginning entirely.

*sigh* Such is life, and death...

If a quarantine saves just one child's or one old fart’s life, it's worth it.

[amorphous]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LsxVRnNGl5A

[null and void]

Well said!

[wastoute]

I bet this board has enough people with military experience we could get you a waiver for Officer Basic.

[null and void]

I have it on good authority that New Zealand actually exists...

[wastoute]

Remember an N95 mask with a valve in it is no protection at all for anyone but the wearer.

[Vermont Lt]

There is no cash. They limited cash back in one store I frequent. No cash back in the other grocery store in town.

I take $10 every time, and stash it in the safe. Just because.

Of course, in two weeks we will be swimming in dollars.

[null and void]

CA is surprising to me given the number of Asians and volume of international travelers.

I wouldn't rule out the possibility that a goodly fraction of this season's "ordinary" flu deaths were COVID-19, before the disease was even recognized.

Mild climate, lots of outdoor activities, fresh air and sunshine might have helped slow the spread. Californian's general tendencies to healthier behavior, etc., etc., etc.

When an antibody test is more universally available and done, we might discover that they are mostly exposed, recovered and immune.

[Vermont Lt]

How can anyone guarantee there will be enough of anything. A fun game to play is to watch the pressers, stop the video after the question and give the answer. After about three questions the answers are all, STFU. It’s a short game.

[nutmeg]

This is Breaking News, which I don't have time right now to post on a new thread on FR. The 7-week-old baby in Connecticut that Gov. Ned Lamont said died of COVID-19, apparently died from an unfortunate accident in the parents' home.

The baby DID test positive for COVID-19, but -- it now seems that the baby did NOT die "of" COVID-19.

This is being widely discussed this afternoon on WTIC 1080 AM radio (the most trusted radio station in CT).

Candace Owens -- who is originally from Connecticut -- seems to have the inside angle on this breaking story:

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/candace-owens-accuses-connecticut-governor-of-lying-about-coronavirus-death-calls-for-resignation

So far Candace's story is the only one I can find about this. We'll see if Lamont fesses up, if indeed he did lie.

Lamont saying this baby died *of* COVID-19 has caused widespread panic here in CT, if not throughout the world, especially to young expectant parents and their families.