We’ve got a ways to go, and this cannot be predicted
But I hope the Flubros are right:
* In 2015, there were 1400 flu/pneumonia deaths in NJ. https://www.nj.com/data/2018/01/heres_how_many_new_jersey_residents_have_died_from.html
* Covid-19 so far - 267 deaths
I hope and pray they are right too but Europe brings it more into perspective. My state is projected to need less than 400 additional ventilators and we are set for hospital beds/icu beds if mitigation continues to work and it does seem to be working. Without mitigation we would have run out of beds and ventilators already if the models are to be believed and looking at Europe they are within the bounds of being realistic. Only a bit fewer are going to get it but many will survive who would not have because it is not all at once and there will be care available for them.
F’in Chinese owe the world several pounds of flesh. They are still lying about their numbers by several orders of magnitude. Looks like more than 40K dead in Wuhan alone. Bastards let loose this demon on the world.