“They quoted the death rate on Hannity’s show as 0.66%. That’s 1 in 151 cases.”
And that’s CONFIRMED cases. For every confirmed case, there may be 10 unreported cases, or 100, or 1000, or 10000!
The true mortality rate is unknown, but we do know this: It is orders of magnitude lower than the .66% rate being reported.
We should not be surprised that the government would report an exaggerated mortality rate.
Pressure from an adversarial media makes the government (certainly any Republican administration) predisposed to overreact - they have no choice when the question put to them 24/7 is “Will this be Trump’s Katrina or Trump’s Chernobyl?”
What choice do they have? None. So they are going to highball death estimates, raise expectations and prepare the public for the worst. They are now saying anywhere from 100,000 to 220000 deaths are possible. Then they say they hope for far less.
See what they are doing? They can’t afford to be wrong on the upside, so they throw out a huge worst case scenario. The truth is they have no idea, and there is no science behind those huge numbers - only fear of undershooting their estimates and looking underprepared.
The good news is that if I’m right, the actual impact over the next two weeks will price to be far less than what we are being prepared to expect. Once that becomes obvious, the panic and overreaction will quickly subside.
We could get back to work much, much sooner than the 30 days.
Damn auto-correct - “Price” should have been “prove”
What choice do they have? None. So they are going to highball death estimates, raise expectations and prepare the public for the worst. They are now saying anywhere from 100,000 to 220000 deaths are possible. Then they say they hope for far less.
See what they are doing? They can’t afford to be wrong on the upside, so they throw out a huge worst case scenario. The truth is they have no idea, and there is no science behind those huge numbers - only fear of undershooting their estimates and looking underprepared.
The good news is that if I’m right, the actual impact over the next two weeks will price to be far less than what we are being prepared to expect. Once that becomes obvious, the panic and overreaction will quickly subside.
We could get back to work much, much sooner than the 30 days.
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Okay, I'm for that. I guess we'll see.
I still wonder why California's #'s are so relatively low so far ...... with all the flights coming to and from China for a long time.
Any thoughts?