What choice do they have? None. So they are going to highball death estimates, raise expectations and prepare the public for the worst. They are now saying anywhere from 100,000 to 220000 deaths are possible. Then they say they hope for far less.
See what they are doing? They can’t afford to be wrong on the upside, so they throw out a huge worst case scenario. The truth is they have no idea, and there is no science behind those huge numbers - only fear of undershooting their estimates and looking underprepared.
The good news is that if I’m right, the actual impact over the next two weeks will price to be far less than what we are being prepared to expect. Once that becomes obvious, the panic and overreaction will quickly subside.
We could get back to work much, much sooner than the 30 days.
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Okay, I'm for that. I guess we'll see.
I still wonder why California's #'s are so relatively low so far ...... with all the flights coming to and from China for a long time.
Any thoughts?
“I still wonder why California’s #’s are so relatively low so far ...... with all the flights coming to and from China for a long time.”
Comparing one country to another, one state to another, or one city to another - is problematic.
I would think metrics such as population density, public transportation patterns, average age, travel behavior and many other characteristics would produce more differences than similarities in person to person physical contact and spreading of a virus. Why do we expect our curve to follow Italy’s curve, or California’s to follow New York’s?
The conversation about this Covid-19 virus is very non-scientific. Junk science on a scale that would make Al Gore proud. Note the similarities between climate change chicken littles and the Covid-19 chicken littles:
With the climate change scare, you have the chicken littles always saying 12 years from now we’ll be under water. But it’s always 12 years from now. Then 12 years later, instead of admitting maybe they were wrong and maybe they have no idea what is going to happen, and no idea what difference (if any) our actions have on the outcome, they just move the goal post out another 12 years and regurgitate their doomsday scenarios and calls to action.
How is this not the same? Apparently, it is over the next two weeks that the shit will hit the fan. But I could swear they already said that a couple times. Two weeks from now, if 200,000 have not died, will they calm down? No, they will say two weeks from the new “now”.
And in three months, if the virus has killed 20,000 instead of 200,000, will they say OK maybe we overreacted? No, they will say “See how effective our preventative actions were?”
Look, I don’t know the future, but neither do they. I don’t appreciate being lied to and restricted “for my own good”, based on junk science.
I don’t blame President Trump one bit for trying to stay ahead of the panic - he has no choice.
But I know the government is designed to overreact, I know the ABCNNBCBS media’s agenda is to discredit President Trump, and I know that the Left is not letting “a crisis go to waste”.
I know that this virus will run its course, and like a cat 5 hurricane, we puny humans will have very little control over - or be responsible for - it’s level of death and destruction.
More than anything, I know that there is a type of personality that simply cannot accept that some events are largely out of our control. They are not comfortable with such a world view. They think it’s up to us to control the climate - not sun spots. They think it’s up to us to set prices and equalize wealth - not the free market. They think everything is their business. They make up pejorative names to mock those of us who disagree - like “flu-bro”, “science denier”, etc..
They are called communists (although they prefer to be called progressives). They can justify killing millions of babies in the womb, while with a straight face pretending they care how many die of a virus.
All they care about is taking control of the means of production - this is just another opportunity to advance that goal.