Posted on 03/30/2020 11:33:24 AM PDT by spacejunkie2001
This morning, Trump was on Fox & Friends and Steve Ducey asked him (in essence) 'Mr. President, what did you see that changed your mind from opening the country back up on 4/12 to now being 4/30?' And Trump responded 'I didn't see anything, I'm going on what Fauci and Birx are telling me'. My question is, what are Birx and Fauci using to cause our nation to be shutdown and ALL industries come to a screeching halt? We already know they WERE using the faulty Imperial College model. Are they still using it? Did they switch to something else? If so, what is that something else?
Needless to say, I am very concerned that the information they're peddling to Trump and the rest of us, is incorrect, either benevolently or malevolently. We need to be made privvy to where that information is coming from
COVID-19 predicted to infect 81% of U.S. population, cause 2.2 million deaths in U.S. - Mar 18th, 2020
We assumed an incubation period of 5.1 days. Infectiousness is assumed to occur from 12 hours prior to the onset of symptoms for those that are symptomatic and from 4.6 days after infection in those that are asymptomatic with an infectiousness profile over time that results in a 6.5-day mean generation time. We assume that symptomatic individuals are 50% more infectious than asymptomatic individuals. On recovery from infection, individuals are assumed to be immune to re-infection in the short term. Evidence from the Flu Watch cohort study suggests that re-infection with the same strain of seasonal circulating coronavirus is highly unlikely in the same or following season.Infection was assumed to be seeded in each country at an exponentially growing rate (with a doubling time of 5 days) from early January 2020, with the rate of seeding being calibrated to give local epidemics which reproduced the observed cumulative number of deaths in G.B. or the U.S. seen by March 14, 2020.
Analyses of data from China as well as data from those returning on repatriation flights suggest that 40-50% of infections were not identified as cases. This may include asymptomatic infections, mild disease and a level of under-ascertainment. We therefore assume that two-thirds of cases are sufficiently symptomatic to self-isolate (if required by policy) within 1 day of symptom onset, and a mean delay from onset of symptoms to hospitalization of 5 days. We assume that 30% of those that are hospitalized will require critical care (invasive mechanical ventilation or ECMO) based on early reports from COVID-19 cases in the U.K., China and Italy. Based on expert clinical opinion, we assume that 50% of those in critical care will die and an age-dependent proportion of those that do not require critical care die (calculated to match the overall IFR). We calculate bed demand numbers assuming a total duration of stay in hospital of 8 days if critical care is not required and 16 days (with 10 days in ICU) if critical care is required. With 30% of hospitalized cases requiring critical care, we obtain an overall mean duration of hospitalization of 10.4 days, slightly shorter than the duration from hospital admission to discharge observed for COVID-19 cases internationally (who will have remained in hospital longer to ensure negative tests at discharge) but in line with estimates for general pneumonia admissions.
In the (unlikely) absence of any control measures or spontaneous changes in individual behavior, we would expect a peak in mortality (daily deaths) to occur after approximately 3 months. In such scenarios, given an estimated R0 of 2.4, we predict 81% of the G.B. and U.S. populations would be infected over the course of the epidemic. Epidemic timings are approximate given the limitations of surveillance data in both countries: The epidemic is predicted to be broader in the U.S. than in G.B. and to peak slightly later. This is due to the larger geographic scale of the U.S., resulting in more distinct localized epidemics across states than seen across G.B. The higher peak in mortality in G.B. is due to the smaller size of the country and its older population compared with the U.S. In total, in an unmitigated epidemic, we would predict approximately 510,000 deaths in G.B. and 2.2 million in the U.S., not accounting for the potential negative effects of health systems being overwhelmed on mortality.
Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf
R0 is how many people one infected person passes it on to.
80% of US infected is 280,000,000. 2.2 million dead is would be less than 1% of that.
I just noticed this too, that the death estimate is as if the hospitals have enough capacity to handle everybody who shows up! "not accounting for the potential negative effects of health systems being overwhelmed on mortality."
I hope POTUS got to hear, or hear about, the things Rush said today about models. It would give him some guidance as to how far he should let Fauci and Birx lead him.
I think if Rush were to drop a dime Trump would pick-up the phone.
Substantial huge increase in deaths in July, says the fellow at https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4J0d59dd-qM around 30:30 - 30:50
Best case scenrio he says, at 31:29
Title of the piece is “Why we can’t save you.” Okay then.
2 4 8 16 32 64 128 256 512 1024 ...... see how that works?
Okay, I guess he’s wrong then.
Time for a block party?
how many are they projected to be infected in the US by 4/15 or 8/15? either one....
cboldt...what’s the projected infections (not deaths) over the next 6 months or so?
Good question. The only source of data in the model, for that, is "number of beds," which will be fewer, maybe by much, that the number of infections.
My eyeball says an average of about 100,000 per day, March to June 16. Bear with me on the math.
If we figured each bed/day is a unique infection (person), we'd get 100,000 per day times 90 days, which would be 9 million (beds times days). But we know each patient takes more than one day. Having read about how long people stay is, and recalling numbers like 8 days, I'll use 9 days and come up with 1,000,000 people infected bad enough to require a hospital bed.
The same graph has an ICU bed requirement. That looks to me to be about 20,000 additional per day. Use that as a fudge factor.
Hospital resource use - IHME
We don't know if he's wrong or not. I was just remarking on his predictions. Time will test those.
That is definitely true.
Time will tell, and it will not be long.
I found this, dated today
COVID-19: U.S. at a Glance*†
Total cases: 140,904
Total deaths: 2,405
Jurisdictions reporting cases: 55 (50 states, District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, Guam, Northern Marianas, and US Virgin Islands)
Not a direct number, but one has to extrapolate. Based on their projections, anywhere from 500,000 to 5 million infected by April 15.
Figure 3 in IHME Projection Report has "Hospitalizations per death" broken down by age. Figure 1 is probability of death based on age. 0-54 year old is one group, then decade intervals.
https://virusncov.com/covid-19-age-sex-cases-and-deaths <- risk of dying by age
I think that is really dated information though, and skewed by reporting quirks, geographic location vs. quality of care, and other variables.
That olders are "at risk" and youngers are not, isn't a contentious proposition, I don't think. It's been the basis of public service announcements and plenty of articles. Like father bans kid from house after kid goes to FL for spring break.
The increase of infections was always going to increase with the increase of testing but negative tests are at 80 to 92 percent across the US vs 8 to 20 per cent positive. 20 percent get sick enough to go to hospital. It’s the packing of the hospitals with that number along with all the other...”regular sick” we already have are what the problem is.
Our perverse bean counters have designed a “just in time” health care system along with utilitarian minded Democrats who just want to wring out just so much care for so few dollars so that the savings could go to their cronies. We have no surge capabilities...so in a panic they try to bottle up a nation of 330 million people to try to save a medical system that was bound to crumble by this or some other disaster under their “process guided” blind mindedness. The medical systems and many governing localities are being run by gamblers who try to “get theirs” before the roulette stops at black “00” and the citizenry are going to have to pay hard for not taking their votes or their politics seriously.
He’s using the fake HIV causes AIDS model...obviously
we are currently at 140k. That is a HUGE jump in that short of time, whether the 500k or 5m
It is quite natural for an exponential function like this spread. We will see where it ends up in mid-April, but I think we could see something in that range.
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