Posted on 03/30/2020 11:33:24 AM PDT by spacejunkie2001
This morning, Trump was on Fox & Friends and Steve Ducey asked him (in essence) 'Mr. President, what did you see that changed your mind from opening the country back up on 4/12 to now being 4/30?' And Trump responded 'I didn't see anything, I'm going on what Fauci and Birx are telling me'. My question is, what are Birx and Fauci using to cause our nation to be shutdown and ALL industries come to a screeching halt? We already know they WERE using the faulty Imperial College model. Are they still using it? Did they switch to something else? If so, what is that something else?
Needless to say, I am very concerned that the information they're peddling to Trump and the rest of us, is incorrect, either benevolently or malevolently. We need to be made privvy to where that information is coming from
I thing the 2075 is deaths at the peak on that date but the total is the 84k
The Surgeon General estimated 100000 cases by the end of last week and he was right.
Birx certainly threw around the old fake number of 2.2 million dead yesterday.
and why would she resort back to that knowing it’s a bogus number?
I agree Rose
Today - 607
March 31 - 722
April 1 - 846
April 2 - 981
April 3 - 1,121
April 4 - 1,264
April 5 - 1,412
April 6 - 1,559
April 7 - 1,700
The projections assume the continuation of strong social distancing measures and other protective measures.
The Michael E. Mann model.
He is using both a worst case and a best case. The Hoax News Media NEVER reports the more likely best case.
Worst case is “if we had don’t nothing at all.”
She doesn't think it's bogus. She thinks 2.2 million dead if no social distancing, no government intervention in freedom of movement, etc.
That purely hypothetical 2.2 MM number is then used to drive the intense government intervention. With the intervention and modified social beahvior, the experts of course project a different result. This goes with "flattening the curve." Two results, one letting nature take its course, the other with massive modification of daily conduct.
The presidents he was working with failed. It’s kind of amazing to me that Trump ended up being the president who listens to him. Which is the exact opposite of that the media has been saying.
If we didn't test at all, there would be zero cases.
Yup
I was gonna say Ford
I thought she denounced it like 6 press conferences ago. Especially after the guy that did that modelling came out and changed his presumptions (dropping from 500k to 20k in the UK)
The truth is that they JUST DON’T KNOW because the CDC fell flat on its face in collecting and compiling data. They were too busy jetting off to Hawaii to hold seminars on Gender Bias in Gun Violence Statistics to do their FREAKING JOB!
Since they can’t generate an accurate model due to lack of data they are hedging their bets towards worst-case scenarios.
Likely as "that won't happen" based on the measures put in place.
Oooh, got lucky. WuFlu Task Force Presser No. 12: March 26, 2020
DR. BIRX: ... I'm sure many of you saw the recent report out of the UK about them adjusting completely their needs. This is really quite important. If you remember, that was the report that said there would be 500,000 deaths in the UK and 2.2 million deaths in the United States. They've adjusted that number in the UK to 20,000. So, half a million to 20,000. We're looking into this in great detail to understand that adjustment.I'm going to say something that's a little bit complicated, but I'm going to try to do it in a way that we can all understand it together. In the model, either you have to have a large group of people who are asymptomatic, who have never presented for any test, in order to have the kind of numbers that were predicted to get to 60 million people infected or 6 million people infected. You have to have a large group of asymptomatics, because in no country to date have we seen an attack rate over 1 in 1,000.
So either we're only measuring the tip of the iceberg of the symptomatic cases and underneath it are a large group of people. So we're working very hard to get that antibody test because that's a good way to figure out who are all these people under here and do they exist. Or we have the transmission completely wrong.
So these are the things we're looking at because the predictions of the models don't match the reality on the ground in either China, South Korea, or Italy.
We are about five times the size of Italy. So if we were Italy and you did all those divisions, Italy should have close to 400,000 deaths. They're not close to achieving that. So these are the kinds of things we're trying to understand. Models are models. We're adapting now to the -- there's enough data now of the real experience with the coronavirus on the ground to really make these predictions much more sound.
So when people start talking about 20 percent of a population getting infected, it's very scary. But we don't have data that matches that, based on the experience.
That last point, "we don't have the data," is the crux of the biscuit.
All the reactions are based on data, and the data is a bit "cherry picked" based on people who present themselves for diagnosis and treatment. We have no clue, as Birx pointed out. There is more than one way the action on the ground can be produced, and one of them, which we have no data for because we don't test for it, is "a large group of people who are asymptomatic, who have never presented for any test."
good stuff. wondering why she’s reverted back to the 2m number again. Even Rush said today it’s a completely bogus number and they shouldn’t even be using it.
Spacejunkie2001, if you would like to know why this thing is dangerous, and what is motivating officials, I invite you and anyone else to watch this-
We are dealing with something very dangerous, and it has the potential to end this country.
This is frickin’ serious, and it is imminent, much unlike Climate Shmange.
Victoria Secrets???
Fauci and Birx are of a mind that fewer than 1 in 1,000 Americans have ever been infected. They base this on no data, but "no data" is of course the case, becasue there is very little testing, relative to the 350 million inhabitants.
The way Fauci and Birx get from 2.2 MM to 0.08 MM is social distancing, restricted travel and restricted interaction. Many of the 2.2 MM are infected untreated people. Literally people dying in the streets, becuase so many come down "at the same time" and the medical system capacity is wildly overwhelmed. I've seen those curves too. The peak is 10's of thousands dead per day. And then it's gone, over.
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