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To: Magnum44
I'm offering my opinion here. ExDemMom is correct. In epidemiology, the graphing for R0 is correct. They are looking for the point of inflection to determine the outcome of public health recommendations, clinical interventions and/or population immunity.

In engineering we used Fourier and power spectrum to pull out signals for non-destructive testing (patented). We then used polynomial fit to take us from reactive to resistive. Sinusoidal functions are generally the domain of engineering and not epidemiology.

Just apologize and move on.
796 posted on 03/28/2020 11:59:56 AM PDT by PA Engineer (Liberate America from the Occupation Media.)
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To: PA Engineer

Not being an expert in epidemiology, I don’t know what R0 even refers to. Barring you or exdemmom explaining, I’ll presume it’s the point of inflection she keeps referring too where the infection rate starts to drop off.

As for engineering applications, I’m not expecting this epidermic to have regular periodic. As a matter of fact, it includes human behaviors with no real good models at all. If you trace back the conversation it started with ‘don’t try to extrapolate from interpolation solutions’. I did not suggest Fourier analysis. I suggested a low order Fourier fit might model the long term epidemic rise and fall.

Maybe you can do a better job of explaining how fitting the daily infection rate is going to provide a prediction of future rates than exdemmom. Seems to me you can’t predict until the inflection point has occurred or slightly after since R isn’t going to exponential until then. So you can collect data for a model to be used next time, but this model doesn’t get one to prediction all by itself.

As to apologies, I think I was about as polite and explanatory as one could be. And exdemmom was given every opportunity to ‘carry on’.


812 posted on 03/28/2020 12:33:44 PM PDT by Magnum44 (My comprehensive terrorism plan: Hunt them down and kill them.)
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