[Thud]

Dr. Lawrence's estimate of an ultimate Wuhan Virus fatality rate in the US of 0.5% - 1% is IMO reasonable. 1% has been my working estimate since the Diamond Princess test of all on board showed that asymptomatic victims slightly outnumbered symptomatic ones. I think there are 8-9 dead now from the Diamond Princess, which is a 1.2% fatality rate of 705 as opposed to the previous 7 dead of 305 infected with symptoms (2.3%).

0.5% fits very well with a scenario in which effective treatment for victims becomes widely available in October rather than next January.

[calenel]

12 dead from the DP. 1 on board, 1 evacuated to the US, 1 evacuated to Canada.

And somewhere they found another 5 cases for a total of 712.

597 recovered, leaving 103 cases unresolved.

The DCR for the DP is 1.7%, the current CFR is 2%. The final CFR will be somewhere in between those numbers, I expect, but if all 103 were to die it would be way higher (16%), and if none of the 13 die it drops to 1.7%. That 1.7% is, mathematically, as low as it can get given the reported numbers.