[BenLurkin]

Why ‘Death Rates’ From Coronavirus Can Be Deceiving
https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2020/03/27/821958435/why-death-rates-from-coronavirus-can-be-deceiving

March 27, 2020·9:01 AM ET
Jon Hamilton

“In the U.S., it’s likely that the case fatality rate from coronavirus will end up somewhere between 0.5% and 1%, once a broad cross-section of the population has been tested, Lawrence says.”

“And across the U.S., as testing has expanded to include younger and healthier segments of the population, the fatality rate has decreased to levels similar to those in South Korea.”

[calenel]

Half the cases in SK still haven’t resolved. I have a hard time believing SK will stay under 2% as the rate of deaths is higher than the rate of new case discovery.

They have found the vast majority of cases through containment, testing and contact tracing. Most of them have yet to make up their minds about which way they want to go with it.

[Thud]

Dr. Lawrence's estimate of an ultimate Wuhan Virus fatality rate in the US of 0.5% - 1% is IMO reasonable. 1% has been my working estimate since the Diamond Princess test of all on board showed that asymptomatic victims slightly outnumbered symptomatic ones. I think there are 8-9 dead now from the Diamond Princess, which is a 1.2% fatality rate of 705 as opposed to the previous 7 dead of 305 infected with symptoms (2.3%).

0.5% fits very well with a scenario in which effective treatment for victims becomes widely available in October rather than next January.