We know what happened in NYC, when it happened, and how it happened.
The very first New Rochelle positive commuted to Grand Central Station for several days before he was identified.
Grand Central Station is one of the busiest train stations in the world, tightly packed with commuters from CT, NY and NJ, who then went to work in Manhattan and spread it to co-workers, friends, and family.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grand_Central_Terminal
You think it wouldn’t have happened with all the Chinese, Iranians, and Italians coming here?
If you want to spread a disease, quickly, drop it in GCS.
Yikes.
So scary.
Chinatowns the world over are filthy. But, they make the real ones in China look like Beverly Hills. Made my first trip there in the 90s for some investment site evaluations. And guess what? Yeah, I got sick. LOL - sort of.
Anyway, if one is curious about sourcing a good leading indicator, I would suggest watching Italy CV mortality. They are now bouncing around what looks to be a plateau - 5 days off the high. It would take a series of huge daily increases to get their trajectory moving upward again. Rather, I think they are exhibiting a classic top before the line finally begins to trend down:
Italy 60.5 IT v US USA 330.4 Day Date Cum Total % Chg Daily Ratio Date Cum Total % Chg Daily 1 2/21/2020 1 1 1.0 2/29/2020 1 1 30 3/21/2020 4,825 19.7% 793 3.2 3/29/2020 1,508 19.7% 248 31 3/22/2020 5,475 13.5% 650 3.2 3/30/2020 1,711 13.5% 203 32 3/23/2020 6,077 11.0% 602 3.2 3/31/2020 1,899 11.0% 188 33 3/24/2020 6,820 12.2% 743 3.2 4/1/2020 2,131 12.2% 232 34 3/25/2020 7,503 10.0% 683 3.2 4/2/2020 2,345 10.0% 213 Gross differential 3.2 Population differential 5.5 Per capita differential 17.5 Growth rate 25 Days 35.94% 29.73% 34 Days 30.01% 25.64% Sources https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_the_United_States https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_Italy