Now, with NY representing 40% of all US deaths as of 3/24, does it: (a) represent a model for the entire country; (b) or target for emergency resource allocation? Note that it's a trick question, because NY lags the entire US by 15 days from the first recorded death. That is, it's a lagging, not leading, indicator.
Moreso, NY vs USA as a whole expressly demonstrates specificity of the disease, one that shares an interesting relationship with both Lombardy & Wuhan. Anyone care to take a guess? Secondly, anyone still curious about why the rest of the US is going to be freed from the 15 emergency order, while NYC will remain on high lock-down?
Italy 60.5 IT v US USA 330.4 NY v IT NY 19.5 Day Date Cum Total % Chg Daily Ratio Date Cum Total % Chg Daily Ratio Date Cum Total % Chg Daily 1 2/21/2020 1 1 1.0 2/29/2020 1 1 2.0 3/14/2020 2 2 2 2/22/2020 2 100.0% 1 1.0 3/1/2020 2 100.0% 1 1.5 3/15/2020 3 50.0% 1 3 2/23/2020 3 50.0% 1 0.5 3/2/2020 6 200.0% 4 2.3 3/16/2020 7 133.3% 4 4 2/24/2020 7 133.3% 4 0.8 3/3/2020 9 50.0% 3 1.7 3/17/2020 12 71.4% 5 5 2/25/2020 10 42.9% 3 0.8 3/4/2020 12 33.3% 3 1.6 3/18/2020 16 33.3% 4 6 2/26/2020 12 20.0% 2 0.9 3/5/2020 14 16.7% 2 3.2 3/19/2020 38 137.5% 22 7 2/27/2020 17 41.7% 5 0.9 3/6/2020 18 28.6% 4 2.7 3/20/2020 46 21.1% 8 8 2/28/2020 21 23.5% 4 1.1 3/7/2020 19 5.6% 1 2.8 3/21/2020 58 26.1% 12 9 2/29/2020 29 38.1% 8 1.3 3/8/2020 22 15.8% 3 2.6 3/22/2020 76 31.0% 18 10 3/1/2020 34 17.2% 5 1.3 3/9/2020 26 18.2% 4 4.6 3/23/2020 157 106.6% 81 11 3/2/2020 52 52.9% 18 1.7 3/10/2020 31 19.2% 5 5.2 3/24/2020 271 72.6% 114 Gross differential 3.2 5.2 Population differential 5.5 32.2% Per capita differential 17.5 16.1 Growth rate Growth rate 25 Days 35.94% 29.73% 11 Days 62.27% 34 Days 30.01% 25.64% 34 33.72%
Well, New York City has a very large expatriate Chinese population, especially in Queens and the southern tip of Manhattan.
We know what happened in NYC, when it happened, and how it happened.
The very first New Rochelle positive commuted to Grand Central Station for several days before he was identified.
Grand Central Station is one of the busiest train stations in the world, tightly packed with commuters from CT, NY and NJ, who then went to work in Manhattan and spread it to co-workers, friends, and family.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grand_Central_Terminal