Posted on 03/21/2020 3:55:09 PM PDT by zeestephen
Tested - 27,121. Positive (Confirmed Infection) - 1,793. Infection Rate - 6.6%. Total Deaths - 94. Deaths By Age: Under 40 years of age - 0%. Age 40 to age 59 - 7%. Age 60 and above - 93%.
(Excerpt) Read more at doh.wa.gov ...
Link to web page with links to Corona websites of all States:
Percent of Confirmed Infection by Age:
18 years old and younger - 2%
Age 20 to 29 - 8%
6% of cases and 9% of deaths have an unknown gender?
I’m not sure I’d trust whomever is compiling these numbers
I would think the point should be made that the high death rate of the older patients was due to poor medical care by a nursing home.
The Hippie Killer.
Re: Links to all state websites
Thanks, Paladin 2.
That’s a great resource.
I love the “sex at birth” field in the Washington State data?
If I’m Trans will it impact the data? More importantly what is the death rate for Trans??? /s
Since they’re not screen everybody, isn’t the infection rate skewed? Or are they extrapolating?
> Tested - 27,121. Positive (Confirmed Infection) - 1,793. Infection Rate - 6.6%. Total Deaths - 94. Deaths By Age: Under 40 years of age - 0%. Age 40 to age 59 - 7%. Age 60 and above - 93%.
1793/94 = 19%
This is important to look at because Washington State was the first place in the U.S. where the virus really took off. You would think by now, there would be over 100,000 cases and at least 1,000 deaths?
The 6.6% infection test rate is important.
Seasonal Influenza in the USA usually peaks at a 30% to 40% test rate.
Washington state confirmed the first USA COVID-19 infection almost two months ago.
I did not start tracking this Washington state number until two weeks ago.
The Washington state infection test rate was 8% two weeks ago.
It has trended down to 6.6% in that same time period.
It appears like the worst is over, especially since we are well on our way to warmer temperatures and more sunshine.
But, please remember that influenza-like infections can return in multiple waves.
Good point.
Pretty much all the numbers, in the US at least, are trending in the right direction.
Viruses can move in waves though, so remain vigilant!
Note that the percentage of deaths to confirmed cases is 0.37%. This is far below the 2-4% range popularized in the press. Some could argue that not all of the confirmed cases have reached finality yet, so some more of them could die. That would mean close to 10,000 deaths in Washington in the next several weeks. That’s not at all likely.
This really does mean that the fatality rate of the Chinese Virus is far lower than the press is insinuating.
It depends on the characteristics of the virus. From what I know, it seems like the virus likes the cool, dry climate of Iran, Italy and north-central China the best. That makes sense on why the virus took off in Washington State and New York City right now.
Re: Case Fatality Rate = 19%
Yes - very bad.
But one third of our deaths occurred in one nursing home.
The good news - nothing like that has happened in any other state.
King County has a very large population of Chinese and South Korean residents.
At least 100,000 fly back and forth every year.
My guess - our initial exposure was to the absolutely most virulent COVID-19 from Wuhan.
oops, forget the above post. I was looking at the wrong numbers.
Whoa!
19% ???
I just checked your math.
The correct calculation is 94 divided by 1,793.
The CFR is 5.2%.
Interesting perspective. Thanks for sharing.
woops, you are correct and i was wrong. haste makes waste.
(however, still somewhat high perhaps?)
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