Posted on 03/21/2020 12:24:24 PM PDT by grumpa
If that's the case, we have about 2 months until the "Zombie Apocalypse".
4 weeks and 3 days, actually - but of course the growth wouldn't remain exponential all the way up to 100%; it's a logistic relationship (cf https://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-chat/3824824/posts).
It's a meaningless percentage. If there is one case one day and two the next, it's 200% increase. The smaller the numbers, the more the increases look ominous.
That 134% has been quite steady over the last 2 weeks - going from 340 cases to 17,000.
The increase is based on increased testing.
Increased testing has inflated that figure - but testing probably hasn't increased by 34% for ANY day, and certainly hasn't been doing so every day for 2 weeks.
While waiting for the new figures, here’s the average new case percentage increase of the top 10 infected states from 3/19 to 3/20: 37.5%.
Washington’s rate of increase for that period is 11%.
Washington is Second in total cases and first in recoveries, by a massive amount.
Buy! Buy! Buy! TURN THE MACHINES BACK ON! Turn the machines back ooooonnnn! (sob)
Hmmm ... those 2 data points don't seem to fit my liberal-urban-s***hole hypothesis. Maybe Atlanta is more of an LUSH than I realized, and Boston less.
“Since you raise the subjects: The mortality rate of COVID-19 appears to be in the 1-2% range (vs 0.1% for the flu) so even if we all get it, no, we are not all going to die.”
Total deaths divided by total cases in USA is 1.17% as of a few hours ago. Of course the real death rate is lower because we don’t know about all cases.
There are outliers here and there every time I look at any of this stuff.
For instance MA currently shows 525 cases and only 1 death.
Can’t be true... I JUST heard, on NBC National news, the “Corona Virus show NO SIGN OF SLOWING”...
Welp, bad news from Washington.
It just reported 269 new cases.
That makes the last two days and today in WA:
189, 149, 269.
A few days ago we were in the 20% range.
Where did you get these figures? According to the numbers at https://covidtracking.com/us-daily/, the average rate over the past week was was 38% versus 33% the week before.
And we do know about all deaths from COVID-19?
It's not - read all the posts on this thread.
By that time, 90% of ALL restaurants in America will be bankrupt.
50% of ALL small businesses, the same...
The stock market will be down another 40%.
We will have >20% unemployed.
Banks will be failing daily.
Our entire economic system will be on the precipice of collapse.
Are you, THAT SURE, that 6 weeks of shutdown is worth the cost?
A function of increased testing. Nine new deaths in WA yesterday, eleven today.
Sorry... I forgot my /sarc tag
“Washington was the first to break out, yet it is noticeable lower than the rest. Could be noise in the data, the next few days will tell us more.”
The Kirkland screwup was politically connected and scared the Guv into taking fast action. For an idiot, once he was scared stiff, he done good.
“By that time, 90% of ALL restaurants in America will be bankrupt.
50% of ALL small businesses, the same...
“The stock market will be down another 40%.
We will have >20% unemployed.
Banks will be failing daily.
Our entire economic system will be on the precipice of collapse.
“Are you, THAT SURE, that 6 weeks of shutdown is worth the cost?”
Are you that sure of your economic forecasts?
And what are the economic consequences of widespread hospitalization and death from unchecked spread of COVID-19?
There are, very likely, 10,000 cases in Washington. But, no one can tell.
Get ready for bigger numbers of cases.
But, not necessarily continuing increases in deaths.
Who was the idiot in that sentence?
Perhaps not, but we may also be counting extra deaths since so many have pre-existing things they may have died from anyway.
If someone has all these pathologies and corona and dies, what did they really die of?
I think we can safely say (presently) that the death rate is much more accurate than the case rate.
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