Posted on 03/21/2020 12:24:24 PM PDT by grumpa
This article is very hopeful. It is filled with charts so I cannot post the article. But it shows a slowing of the virus in every country. It also shows the weather patterns where the virus is strongest. "The overall summary is things are getting much better." Here's the link:
https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2020/03/data-analysis-indicates-coronavirus-is-slowing-with-a-declining-fatality-rate-with-warmer-weather-likely-slowing-it-considerably/?fbclid=IwAR3egH1XSU41v8xmK3SxoMrZXtkPSyZZ-fGXYcV1FfIP118Sd47HifjcdBM
Clueless twit should keep his mouth shut over things he doesn’t understand. You cannot ascertain the effect of warmer weather when internationally everyone has pushed social distancing at exactly the same time.
This is a logical error of the first magnitude. And the guy perpetrating it is a swindler.
We’re accelerating faster than Italy.
You can bet in August and September, and all the way up to the fall recess for elections, the Democrats in the House will hold hearings and do everything they can to blame Trump for his “slow” response to the Wuhan virus. It doesn’t matter how many people get sick and die from this they will blame the economic slowdown and the societal disruptions all on him!
With testing such a constraining factor, it’s hard to tell. A couple of SARS-experienced countries apparently caught it early. It appears as if there may be a second strain added here in the US (hitting the younger population). Just hard to know right now.
The acceleration at this point as predicted, is mainly due to testing becoming more readily available. We are diagnosing people who were likely already infected but we didn't know they were infected because widespread testing wasn't available at the time. Whether the rate of new infections is slowing, we won't know for a couple of weeks or so.
They gave up testing in Los Angeles.
People begging for tests aren’t given tests.
The numbers will skyrocket when and if we test.
We are just getting started. New York will be terrible and without ICU ventilators people will just be told to stay home, take meds, live or die.
Normalcy Bias. Denial. All on full display all day on FR.
Italy. DRINK
Andy, I assume you are an expert virologist or epidemiological expert. If so, I will grant some credibility to your rant. Most seasonal viruses (including influenza, better known coronaviruses, and SARS) do tend to recede with the advent of warmer weather. That is why seasonal flu is called seasonal flu. If you have a reasoned scientifically valid reason why that is not likely to happen with COVID 19, explain it in this forum. We are not morons and many of us have significant scientific training. If you cannot do so, your rant is nothing but your opinion. As I frequently admonish people here ad hominem attacks are not valid arguments. If you cannot provide a compelling argument end your rant with the “this is just my opinion” disclaimer.
When you trivialize someone’s analysis by labeling them moronic or some other ad hominem attack, you would strengthen your critique by providing more valid analysis and commentary - if you have it.
A few of his moronic comments:
I agree, he is cherry picking data, and looking backwards.
If you look at Worldometer which we seem to accept here, the US infection rate per 1 million population is approximately 60 people. This is .006% percent of the US population infected. Italy’s rate is approximately 800 per million people (more than 12 times the US rate), while South Korea which is praised here has a rate of 170 per million population (3 times the US rate). Even if we reach the Italian case rate which is incredibly unlikely, that works out to a .09% infection rate in the US. I think that qualifies as a relatively low chance of being infected.
That's today. Total cases are running at 134% of the previous day's total cases; at that rate, in 4 weeks 0.006% grows to about 24%.
“Total cases are running at 134% of the previous day’s total cases; at that rate, in 4 weeks 0.006% grows to about 24%.”
And in 12 weeks, everybody will have it 4 times!
So your assumption is what? That we are all going to die? Do you think more police state restrictions are the answer? BTW, the CDC estimates of flu infections is roughly 15% of the population annually, with 2019-2020 current flu season deaths between 20,000 and 50,000. The infection numbers will grow and more people will die. Some of us here object to seeing our country turned into a police state. Am I to assume that you are not bothered by that?
If that's the case, we have about 2 months until the "Zombie Apocalypse".
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