Posted on 03/21/2020 12:24:24 PM PDT by grumpa
This article is very hopeful. It is filled with charts so I cannot post the article. But it shows a slowing of the virus in every country. It also shows the weather patterns where the virus is strongest. "The overall summary is things are getting much better." Here's the link:
https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2020/03/data-analysis-indicates-coronavirus-is-slowing-with-a-declining-fatality-rate-with-warmer-weather-likely-slowing-it-considerably/?fbclid=IwAR3egH1XSU41v8xmK3SxoMrZXtkPSyZZ-fGXYcV1FfIP118Sd47HifjcdBM
Here are the top ten infected states and their percentage of new case increase from 3/19 to 3/20.
NY: 56%
WA: 11 (!)
CA: 20
NJ: 20
IL: 37
FL: 35
MI: 64
LA: 37
GA: 69
MA: 26
Washington was the first to break out, yet it is noticeable lower than the rest. Could be noise in the data, the next few days will tell us more.
The Gateway Pundit guys aka Just a Flu Bros.
It’s gonna ramp up.
Now is the time, don’t open hand a damn thing.
It’s because of increased testing.
As testing increases even more, the numbers will be even steeper.
Not sure why people don’t understand this
My problem is the fallacious effort to demonstrate that these is seasonal based upon information where aggressive public health measures have been taken. If A+B => X it is not necessarily the case that B=>X especially when it is already that case that A=>X.
It's just atrocious scientific reasoning.
His analysis is moronic. My thumb healed in the spring after I stopped hitting it with a hammer. It must be that thumb injuries are seasonal.
What’s because of increased testing?
Because they stopped using their brains for statistics when they stopped buying baseball cards.
I have been saying for a week: People are counting raindrops. But they have no concept if it a spring mist or a hurricane.
People who cannot figure out their marginal tax rate are trying to write essays on their applied statistics.
If you take a step back and look at it, it’s kind of amusing.
It’s not influenza. It’s a coronavirus.
This type of virus lives quite well in warm climates. We are not people that live in villages; we live in hot climates with air conditioning that spreads this stuff like butter.
It lives quite well in Indonesia and Manila—two places that pretty hot and humid.
Your supposition does apply to the regular flu.
From Health.com
As springtime approaches and the temperature begins to rise, will SARS-CoV-2—the virus at the root of the 2019 coronavirus disease (COVID-19)—also be affected?
Unfortunately, no one knows for sure—and even experts can’t seem to agree on whether or not warmer weather will slow down the coronavirus.
According to a new article in National Geographic, viruses that cause influenza or milder coronaviruses (yes, there are seven in total that affect humans, some much less concerning than others) often subside in warmer months due to a concept called “seasonality,” or a predictable rise and fall depending on the time of year. That seasonality also has to do with how certain viruses respond to heat and humidity, along with the fact that when the temperature rises, people spend less time inside where viruses can more easily spread.
Evidently some coronavirus varieties de exhibit seasonality. Do you have a basis for asserting that this one is different?
costa rica has as of today 117 cases up 4 from yesterday, but they are not pronouncing an end to measures to stop the spread as it can be an abnormality.
Most cases are in the central valley which has more temperate weather. One case is tied to 25 later cases in central valley. Beaches have 90 degree weather 65 % plus humidity (summer) other than 2 cases one in nicoya other in santa cruz, one now in Limon a port city. none near beaches and none in one province, Puntarenas big tourist destination for beaches-Jaco beach etc...
costa rica government has done an outstanding job containing the situation, with quick action and even getting a liquor company to convert from drinking type alcohol to sanitizing liquid, making it available at low cost via post offices.
http://amcostarica.com/Online%20ordering%20available%20for%20sanitizer%20alcohol.html
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_Costa_Rica
It's a meaningless percentage. If there is one case one day and two the next, it's 200% increase. The smaller the numbers, the more the increases look ominous.
The increase is based on increased testing. Thousands could have already had the virus. There is no way of knowing where we are in the cycle.
Agreed but if we start seeing an abrupt increase of critical care admissions where we weren’t seeing them before, then the testing data starts to become significant from the time of the increase...assuming testing becomes much more uniformly consistent. Temporal reality allows verification of data changes. If you have lots of positives but no one gets any critically sicker then many had the disease long before the increase of testing and most are recovering already. If you have an abrupt rise of illness and observable symptoms, then your data change curve starts at that level of positives and continues upward as more folks get sick with new onset of symptoms. Look for a swift change in hospital admittances....it starts there.
Still when they start see very abrupt admittances for severe onset of respiratory illnesses,high fever, or even respiratory distress with no or hypothermia, then any dolt in Los Angeles should be able to figure out the Covid is abroad. They’ll need to test at that point...at least to prove that Newsome had the proper data to prove that his emergency orders were backed by data. L.A. not testing just shoots Newsome in the foot.
The acceleration at this point as predicted, is mainly due to testing becoming more readily available. We are diagnosing people who were likely already infected but we didn’t know they were infected because widespread testing wasn’t available at the time. Whether the rate of new infections is slowing, we won’t know for a couple of weeks or so.
+++++
You are correct. The current rate of newly diagnosed infections is running in the 40% range: 10,000 today then 14,000 tomorrow and so on.
A few days ago we were in the 20% range. The difference, as you point out, is due to the ramp up in the testing. At this point it is impossible to know if there is any slowing in the spread of the virus. I think we have a month to wait before we are even close to having a handle on that.
“At this point it is impossible to know if there is any slowing in the spread of the virus. I think we have a month to wait before we are even close to having a handle on that.”
There’s more to look at that can tell us something:
171 people have recovered in the USA.
124 of them are from Washington, the state with the first fast outbreak.
Washington is working through the cycle first as it came on there first?
Sure we do...an abrupt increase in admissions to the hospital for severe respiratory failure where they had been at a static average in numbers per day per week...it at least tells us the numbers are increasing. Before that there were occasional admissions for pneumonia of unknown viral origin some of who lived and some died,but the best viral panels showed no virus and bacterial issues were treated for and or ruled out. There was no testing for covid. Now if we start seeing an abrupt movement upward in patients needing to be emergently treated and these new patients are all testing positive then we can suspect a broader spread in the community then even what the tests showed just the previous week....
New higher admissions rate curves for positive covid with respiratory or severe flu like symptoms will clarify how to read the data gleaned from testing.
By the way, we are 2 hours from the end of this reporting day. Washington hasn’t reported anything yet, they seem to always report right at the end of the day.
Watching and waiting on WA with interest.
That rate shows only how many per million per country are infected at the current time, you cant predict rates of new infection or declines with it. It is a snapshot in time. It’s like taking a picture of a beach and saying...”oh look no signs of a tidal wave here” but if being taken by a motion picture camera, the photographer sees the beach then the wave coming in and then(as long as the photographer was in a safe place) sees the wave receding carrying the village and all the bodies with it.
Ultimately it’s the rate of new onsets starting from a set point in time from which we can begin to understand disease virulence and rates of increase. You mop up your data and make finer point corrections later when the disease new onsets definitely are noted to be decreasing over time....IE, fewer icu admits for covid over a couple of weeks.
Total cases are running at 134% of the previous day's total cases; at that rate, [...] a 12-fold increase would happen in 9 days.
So your assumption is what? That we are all going to die? Do you think more police state restrictions are the answer?
Hysterical much? I've said nothing about death, nor about proper policy responses to the virus.
Since you raise the subjects: The mortality rate of COVID-19 appears to be in the 1-2% range (vs 0.1% for the flu) so even if we all get it, no, we are not all going to die.
As for restrictions: if you think any limitation of free movement in the face of a contagion is "police state" you're a lunatic-fringe libertarian (not that there's anything wrong with that). There are both such things as too restrictive a government response, and not restrictive enough. I think if the current restrictions haven't produced significant results in the 4-6 week range, we need to drop them and try something else - and that as soon as we've contained the spring wave of the virus, the restrictions need to be lifted (while we take the needed steps to make sure they're not necessary when the fall virus season rolls around).
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