Number of confirmed cases by 11:59 pm tomorrow, 3/22/20: 35,663
Daily rate of increase in confirmed cases: 31.8%
Weekly rate of increate in confirmed cases: 689.9%
Days to doubling of confirmed cases: 2.51
Date to pass China in officially confirmed cases: 3/25/20 (of course, China's numbers are bogus, but it does serve as a kind of benchmark, given that we know it's at least as bad as they've admitted.
Date to reach 100,000 cases: 3/26/20
Date to reach 1,000,000 cases: 4/3/20
Numbers are based on the reported confirmed cases by Johns Hopkins and World-o-Meters.
These daily projections (not predictions) have typically been low by 10% to 40%.
Dude, you’re on top of it.
Scouter:
I think your numbers are solid up to 3/26.
I would predict the curve will be bent a little bit from the banning of large gatherings a while back so we come in below your 4/3 number—but by how much?—that is above my pay grade.
There are also are real lab supplies and protective clothing constraints out there—I am not sure the states could actually do a million tests—even if they wanted to—and some jurisdictions are now saying they will only test health care workers and hospital patients.
Bottom line—this is going to start getting weird, and the data is going to start getting more and more unreliable.