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[...] based on the progression of government action combined with the pure math/statistics involved in projecting the spread [...] I THINK [...]

Could you please present the "pure mathematics" and "statistics" upon which you based your conclusion?

Regards,

I didn't actually do the math -> you didn't have to. If you watched the growth in Wuhan it was kind of intuitive, plus add the lying factor to China and you would have said 'this could be a mess.'

I'm not in the government, I'm sure they had access to better numbers and actual statisticians that could calculate things to within whatever degrees of standard deviations was appropriate.

Hey - also I'm just thinking out loud. Using the term 'Pure' with math/stats is a way of saying you had figures coming out of wuhan. If I recall, the Johns Hopkins map was up a long time ago, I don't remember exactly when, but numbers were being published either there, or here and there in the news.

So if you're not chilled out ... please chill out. I'm making a conversational ... commentary ... or guess as to how the administration experienced this thing as it was happening.

There was enough pattern long ago to say 'well, gee, if you start that pattern HERE, or anywhere, and it's a virus so it probably will affect all people mostly if not exactly the same, it's probably going to behave the same when and if, but probably it will ... get here.

And it's entirely possible I'm wrong. Much of what we post here is intelligent (sometimes not) conjecture.

But if you say 'could you please present' I say to you this: I bet if you go back and look at the numbers coming out of China day to day, before it really went anywhere else, you could put an approximate rate of infection on it. Once you've done that, and if you assume it started with one or maybe a few people, you have a PATTERN which can be reduced to a NUMBER that is a multiplier. That is MATH. That's what I'm getting at. The NUMBERS may not be PURE but the MATH is PURE.

I personally did zero math, or better stated, my multiplier was 'this looks like a shiite show that's repeatable wherever it lands.'

Why you harshin' on my mellow dude? :-)

PS the damn curves in every single country are the same, except that some countries handled it differently or have different population distributions and cultural habits. But had each country done nothing differently, and if you adjust for how crowded any area is ... the curve is the same.

If you plant a daisy seed from over there to over here, you're going to get ... a daisy. That's pure math and biology. But you don't have to do any math or know any biology to know a you're gonna get ... a daisy as long as there is soil sunlight and water. Soil, sunlight and water to this thing is 'people.'