South Korea took strong measures to get a handle on the disease early, and did not have to engage in triage.
Italy also has a higher population of older and obese people than South Korea.
However, South Korea has just hit the pause button, they have not stopped anything.
If they start celebrating victory too early, the virus will have the last word.
CUOMO: “We did some projections. We think here in New York... we’re looking here at a peak in about five or six weeks. We’re looking at about 110,000 hospitalizations, about 25,000 to 37,000 people needing ICU beds. That vastly overwhelms our healthcare capacity.”
https://twitter.com/ryanstruyk/status/1240731828731949065
110,000 hospitalizations/.15 = 733,000.
New York state’s population is 19.8M, of which about 60% (11.9M)
733,000/11,900,000 = 6% of the population is infected in the first wave.
I am estimating that 5% of the population will be infected in the first wave, so I believe Cuomo’s estimates are solid.
I am impressed, to be honest.