Only 3000 ***ICU*** beds. Per reports from elsewhere, if you have to be hospitalized, chances are good you’re going to need an ICU bed.
If 19% are being hospitalized - let’s round that up to 20% to make that easy - you will have 3000 people needing to be hospitalized per 15,000 known infected. Assuming that only 10% of those 3000 people need an ICU bed (age, pre-existing condition, genetic vulnerability - safe bed), that’s 300 per 15,000 people. By the time they have 150,000 known infected, all the ICU beds will be full. And then people start dying because there won’t be any ICU beds.
150K is what, a few city blocks in NYC?
You are basing all these projections on 19% of 1700 cases that came back positive. But there has to be thousands of infected people who are not included in that number because it’s been nearly impossible to get tested in NYS for the past month.
Once testing becomes more available all these high percentages will go down