“If it continues to spread at that rate, then we will hit 100,000,000 on April 23.”
Confirmed cases will increase with wider testing, artificially increasing the rate.
Still, assume your sentence above is correct.
In your experience has any epidemic spread like that?
What you’re saying is mathematical but not necessarily realistic biologically.
People said similar things about China.
Can you tell us what percentage of tested people are positive and if that rate is changing?
First of all, I want to be clear that my numbers are projections, not predictions. All I'm doing is the basic math to see what the numbers would be if the virus continues to spread at the same rate it has been spreading for the past 3 weeks, or so. I'm not claiming it will. There are lots of reasons it might not, the most important of which is social distancing, which works. The purpose of the projection was to make the point that the time to act is now, while the numbers are still small. The Flu Bros are thinking linearly, but the spread is exponential.
I'm not an epidemiologist, but I did study epidemiology, preventive medicine, and statistics at the graduate level at the University of Maryland School of Medicine. I also have a Master's Degree in Medical Informatics from Northwestern University. I have worked with medical and epidemiological data for over 30 years.
My work experience with epidemiological data has always been after the fact, not with an active epidemic, and has been mostly centered around trauma care. So no, I haven't seen this before, but I'm not the best person to answer that question.
There will come a point where the virus has difficulty finding new victims, and the projections will no longer apply. But I believe that is well after the 12,000,000 case mark. However, your point is well taken that wider testing will artificially increase the rate of spread, as I have calculated it. But that just points out the fact that it is already far more widespread than the official confirmed case numbers indicate.