First of all, I want to be clear that my numbers are projections, not predictions. All I'm doing is the basic math to see what the numbers would be if the virus continues to spread at the same rate it has been spreading for the past 3 weeks, or so. I'm not claiming it will. There are lots of reasons it might not, the most important of which is social distancing, which works. The purpose of the projection was to make the point that the time to act is now, while the numbers are still small. The Flu Bros are thinking linearly, but the spread is exponential.
I'm not an epidemiologist, but I did study epidemiology, preventive medicine, and statistics at the graduate level at the University of Maryland School of Medicine. I also have a Master's Degree in Medical Informatics from Northwestern University. I have worked with medical and epidemiological data for over 30 years.
My work experience with epidemiological data has always been after the fact, not with an active epidemic, and has been mostly centered around trauma care. So no, I haven't seen this before, but I'm not the best person to answer that question.
There will come a point where the virus has difficulty finding new victims, and the projections will no longer apply. But I believe that is well after the 12,000,000 case mark. However, your point is well taken that wider testing will artificially increase the rate of spread, as I have calculated it. But that just points out the fact that it is already far more widespread than the official confirmed case numbers indicate.
glad I saw your post, scouter. I think this is right up your alley.
How does the below work for projecting cases? Say, if there is 10 deaths, does that project out to 1,000 cases or 8,000 potential cases??
Thanks.
“...For example, if modelers assume a case-fatality ratio of 1 percent, and that it usually takes 15 days for an infected person to die, then they know a death reported today in a specific region means that 100 people were likely infected there 15 days ago. Add in the time it takes cases to double—Edmunds says it seems to take five days—then modelers can estimate that over those 15 days the number of cases swelled to 800. So, for every death in a region, that means about 800 others are already infected, most of whom will not have been identified. This pattern was verified in Italy, Edmunds says, which as of today has reported 12,462 cases and 827 deaths. When officials tested people living near where someone had died from the disease, in many cases they found hundreds of others were already carrying the virus.
https://www.the-scientist.com/news-opinion/modelers-struggle-to-predict-the-future-of-the-covid-19-pandemic-67261