Coronavirus Epidemic May Be Slowed by Warm and Humid Weather. The U.S. may get a respite from COVID-19 this summer.

Reason ^ | March 16, 2020 | Ronald Bailey

[karpov]

Will the coronavirus that causes COVID-19 recede as the weather warms up, as flu viruses often do? Maybe so, according to a preliminary study by Chinese researchers. That would be terrific news.

Basically, the researchers analyzed how the epidemic evolved in various Chinese cities taking into account the weather in each. They also compared how the virus proliferated in countries with relatively lower seasonal air temperature and lower humidity (e.g., Korea, Japan, and Iran), which experienced more severe outbreaks with its spread in warmer and more humid countries (e.g., Singapore, Malaysia, and Thailand), where the outbreaks have been more limited.

In cold dry weather the basic reproduction number (R) of the new coronavirus is somewhere between 2 and 3—that is, each infected person passes along the virus to an average of 2 to 3 other people. Once they've crunched the data, the researchers find that a one degree Celsius increase in temperature and one percent increase in relative humidity lower the R value by 0.0383 and 0.0224, respectively.

Let's take the average climate of a randomly chosen American city—say, Washington, D.C. In March, the average high temperature is 56 degrees Fahrenheit (13.3 degrees C), with a relative humidity of 58 percent. In August, the average high temperature is 87 degrees Fahrenheit (30.6 degrees C) and humidity averages 71 percent. Assuming optimistically an R of 2, that would yield an August R of 1.047. In this scenario, rising summer heat and humidity would cut the R in half and significantly slow down the course of the epidemic.

The beneficial effects of summer, combined with conscientiously practiced mitigation measures such as social distancing and case isolation that flatten the epidemic's curve of infections, could drive R could below 1, causing the number of new cases to decline.

[a fool in paradise]

Prepping their excuses for lower than hyped numbers

[PGalt]

Heading towards spring the ice is getting thin. Politicos and Propagandists could get infected with the brass virus.

[moovova]

Saved by global warming!

[txrefugee]

So global warming may save us from this pandemic. Ironic.

[wiseprince]

Wait, so “flu season” doesn’t encompass the whole year? That’s odd.

[IronJack]

Another argument in favor of global warming.

[Georgia Girl 2]

In a few weeks these “experts” will all be saying nevermind and then disappear.

[George from New England]

Let me be the first here on free republic to predict this ...

All the idle cruise ships are being located at U.S. piers, others 20 miles off shore where they can pull up to a pier on an few hours notice.

These ships have proven to be petri like dishes in the transmission of the virus.

Hvac filter do exist to filter the air and I predict one-by-one all these idle cruise ships will be retrofitted, maybe even due to involvement of the Army Corp of Engineers.

They will become the second tier in case of hospital overflows and will house/quarantine thousand of additional ill if needed.

After things settle down, the cruise industry will be able to claim total cleanliness and continued safety from all the filtration newly upgraded in their ships. There will be little to no reason for people to not resume taking vacations on cruise ships.

My educated freeper 2 cents worth. Thoughts?

[central_va]

Like the MP & the Holy Grail movie where they invade and wreak havoc on the wrong castle and then say “So sorry.”?

[George from New England]

I’ve looked high and low on the internet, found nothing.

What are the effects of the salt air, or the salt water at the beaches on this COVID-19 ?

Does the salinity kill it?

What level of air content in the salty vein affects the virus?

[Georgia Girl 2]

Exactly! That virus is gonna hate GA and VA. We got hot and muggy on speed dial. 😆

[pburgh01]

Prepping their excuses for lower than hyped numbers

Exactly! This is all hat and little cowboy. It's the flu(that aggravates doomer). Old sick folks will die and yes MAYBE few hospitals will be oveerwhelmed as the infirmed die or recover but we will survive as a society. Americans are incredibly resilient and I trust them(more than most doomers here)

Here comes the graphs and charts from the doomers......

[CaptainMorgantown]

But will we get a respite from power hungry experts and politicians, who are all too eager for the next opportunity to impose draconian measures on us?

[fireman15]

The Diamond Princess, which was held for weeks off the coast of Japan had no advanced upgrades to its ventilation system. Yet only 17% of its mostly elderly passengers became infected and half of them had no symptoms.

https://wattsupwiththat.com/2020/03/16/diamond-princess-mysteries/

[reg45]

So, we can re-open bars and restaurants if we turn off the air conditioning.

[tiki]

I don’t think so. We always have Flu season and it is almost over. Granted, you can get the Flu outside of the season but it becomes less likely as spring arrives.

[TBall]

A friend sent me this and thought interesting. https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=fLKpdwp7B_A

[IronJack]

I think it goes beyond simply finding space for the sick. There is also the matter of trained caregivers, equipmet, and other supplies. While cruise ships could supply beds, they don’t generally come supplied with respirators, patient lifts, or even hospital-type beds.

Is it possible? Yeah, probably. But the logistics are daunting.

[GingisK]

Explain Iran.