Posted on 03/15/2020 5:49:29 PM PDT by nickcarraway
Exclusive: Public Health England document seen by Guardian says four in five ‘expected’ to contract virus
The coronavirus epidemic in the UK will last until next spring and could lead to 7.9 million people being hospitalised, a secret Public Health England (PHE) briefing for senior NHS officials reveals.
The document, seen by the Guardian, is the first time health chiefs tackling the virus have admitted that they expect it to circulate for another 12 months and lead to huge extra strain on an already overstretched NHS.
It also suggests that health chiefs are braced for as many as 80% of Britons becoming infected with the coronavirus over that time.
Prof Chris Whitty, the government’s chief medical adviser, has previously described that figure as the worst-case scenario and suggested that the real number would turn out to be less than that. However, the briefing makes clear that four in five of the population “are expected” to contract the virus.
The document says that: “As many as 80% of the population are expected to be infected with Covid-19 in the next 12 months, and up to 15% (7.9 million people) may require hospitalisation.”
(Excerpt) Read more at theguardian.com ...
This is why I get my information from articles on PubMed and not Free Republic.
This research asserts that the Wuhan experienced a heavy death toll due due to the vast growth of cases which overwhelmed the system. Outside the Hubei province the CFR was 1% or less. The disaster that happened at Hubei is unfolding in Lombardy, Italy and in Iran. Although there’s small hope that Iran May flatline soon.
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/m/pubmed/32168464/?i=1&from=/trending
True. We don’t know the denominator. That said, if you think for a second that this isn’t a seriously dangerous virus, you are misinformed. No offense meant, at all. It’s just a fact.
I think you are making a good point. This sensationalism is for a reason.
At least Trumps numbers haven’t gone down.
A week ago I was expecting 2Q GDP to be down 1%, 2 days ago 3-4%. With what our government is doing by shutting down everything which will likely continue to get more idiodic? I think we may see a 25% GDP contraction (April down maybe 35%) in 2Q and 10 million people laid off, 75% of those layoffs in restaurants, hotels, airlines, cruise lines, theme parks and retailers (basically anything not like target/costco/supermarket is going to layoff everyone they can) and the rest from companies tightening down. I’m expecting a 10-15% GDP contraction in 3Q. And i’m usually fairly optimistic. I’m unlikely to lose my job, but at least fortunately would get 6 months severance + accrued PTO if I did.
What a bunch of hockey tock!
Italy has the second oldest population in the world after Japan.
You ain’t seen nothing Bubba. There are weaponized viruses out there that make this look like the common cold by comparison. Spare us the histrionics.
That may not happen!!
” I’m reading daily emails from medical groups and they are predicting a 1% or less fatality rate.”
I was reading 1% also. However with the right steps that could be lower to .2% to .6% if we isolate and lock down big cities. It will hurt our economy, but that will bounce back in a year or two.
This boils down to private heath care verses socialized medicine, remember the article is from a socialized medicine point of view. I will place my bet on our Heath Care system preforming well. I think the rate will be .3%, not 1.0% or 3.5% (WHO).
I do think it might be around this summer, this thing does not care how hot it is. The spread my slow down because of the summer hot humidity limits the distance it can travel in the air.
According to your theory we should have the high number of deaths each year for the flu, but we do.
I’m only brainstorming here, but I think there are 4 things that made covid-19 more deadly in Italy. They are:
1. Population density.
2. % of population who are heavy smokers.
3. Heavy atmospheric pollution.
4. The Italian leather industry depending on cheap Chinese labor.
I believe that the above factors made coronavirus especially virulent in Italy. Just a theory.
CC
There are different mutations of the virus. The S mutations appears to be in the Western US. The L mutation is in Italy. The L mutation is much harder on the body.
This disease is _very_ _very_ dangerous for non-elderly people.
Here is the evidence:
True but it is likely that there have been many more cases than discovered. Just people with very mild symptoms. Also the fatalities in Italy and China can partially be attributed to culture, widespread smoking, and environment air pollution.
It’s not just retail and hospitality workers at risk. Across the street from my subdivision an $80 million road is just being completed. Plan is to put 11,000 new homes in a huge new suburban tract. I doubt that’s not happening now in a Wu Flu world. We are certainly facing another 2008-10 era housing crisis as those laid off can’t make their house payments.
This is why I get my information from articles on PubMed and not Free Republic.
This research asserts that the Wuhan experienced a heavy death toll due due to the vast growth of cases which overwhelmed the system. Outside the Hubei province the CFR was 1% or less.
If we get this Wu Flu hysteria with 5-10 dead a day what is it going to be like at 100 a day? Even with a fatality rate similar to the seasonal flu that is what we are looking at.
This Wu Flu bug will come and go. Sadly, the economic carnage created in its wake is here to stay for quite some time.
No, it’s not. The confirmed death rate for people under 40 is around 0.2% of confirmed cases, which means its likely 50, 75% or as much as 90% lower than that as mild cases are not recorded. Yes, some will die - it’s true of the flu - but you have higher odds of dying of a car accident this year.
Oh, the ripple effects will be huge. I wouldn’t be surprised if they announce they are closing the stock market for 2 or 3 weeks.
I'm assuming you meant to say that ‘we should not have the high number of deaths each year from the flu, but we do’.. It's a very good point, but we have to consider that ‘less virulent’ doesn't mean non-lethal. It is likely that we would have a much higher number of influenza-associated deaths if a more lethal strain were to emerge.
The death rate is low, but the critical care rate the same for young adults, middle aged folks as it is for the elderly.
You do not want to get seriously sick with this virus, no matter how old you are.
You are looking at several weeks in critical care, and possible permanent lifetime lung impairment.
By focusing on the death figures you are misleading folks on the true dangers of this virus.
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