[LS]

Not sure I understand all this, but my friend Deplorable Greg-—yes, he’s an ObGyn, not a virologist-—has been tracking this and shows that in Iran (and, I think, in Italy) the trend line has begun to curve down.

In the US, IF the China Virus was here in December as most of us think, then the numbers are probably several weeks behind where the real curve is.

[DoodleBob]

I'm not a biostatistician nor do I play on one TV, but if you normalize for population and the stage of the epidemic where each country sits, our active case count will rise very fast, no doubt. However, we are WELL below where other major countries were in their first few weeks of their epidemic. If this trend continues, we'll have the second-lowest per capital case count (the UK is the lowest).

The SURPRISING story should be Switzerland: 3,438 active cases for a (allegedly well-developed) nation of about 8.5MM people. That's the second-highest per-capital case load. It's probably due to a pours border situation with other hot spots Germany, France, and Italy. Go to find the case count by Canton.