[DoodleBob]

Thank you, those are all good and fair points. I recall the data gap in mid Feb and, as often happens in statistics, homogeneity and consistency in the data was likely lost - if it was even there in the first place.

I've dealt often with messy and imperfect data....my kingdom for a clean dataset! My hope is that even with likely faked and fraudulent data, that the fakery was consistent. Thus, maybe the level is off but the trend may be right, in which case my model isn't totally screwed.

I won't be surprised if I'm off by a few thousand cases....maybe even 10k. Forecasting isn't easy. But the absolutely wild and asinine estimates of hundereds of thousands or millions of cases in America is borderline criminal negligence.

If my long-winded post can calm down one person, it shall not have been in vain.

[Pollster1]

My hope is that even with likely faked and fraudulent data, that the fakery was consistent.

That is why I assume no one will bother with the Iranian data.