[FreeReign]

Just keep in mind that "the curve" is driven largely by availability of the test. We don;t know anything about "before the test," which was when, exactly? If the number of cases was static, the curve will be an expoential ramp up just from expoential ramp up of testing.

Exactly. I posted the following graph several days ago that shows this very point.

[Cboldt]

A summary of the testing stats includes the tidbit that 3% of symptomatic people tested, test positive for COVID-19. That means most of the people with symtoms, get the symptoms from some other contagion.

That said, I wonder what that "3%" curve looks like. Has it ALWAYS been 3% of sympotmatic are due to COVID-19? Doubtful! In fact, impossible. At some point the COVID-19 value had to be zero or close to it.

[TECTopcat]

True as far as the availability of the data isn’t good enough yet but the assumption in this chart is not good data analytics and misleading. Let me try and explain.

Simple put It is making negative assumptions punched into a spreadsheet that are not based on facts.

The fatality rate for COVID 19 is nowhere near as high as some alarmist make it out to be. It is dropping as a % as more test are own and capture those with mild symptoms. That is why no one, repeat ZERO under the age of 10 has died anywhere in the world, including China, Iran or Italy .

As more test are done you will see more confirmed cases but death rate % dropping as it already has started to do that’s because it is more mild than reported for most people and so far only serious cases get counted for the most part.

There will be more deaths, serious yes, it might even surpass the 12,461 deaths in US in 2009 from H7N9 aka swine flu.

Look: The two countries that have done the most testing that can be relied upon is S Korea and Germany , they have tested well over 350,000 and have a combined 12,761 cases and 84 deaths for a fatality rate of .0065 or less than 1%. That is more than the flu but nothing like what some are reporting here and in the news.

As a matter of fact if you add up the top 15 countries with reported cases excluding China, Italy and Iran you get over 35,000 cases and 501 deaths for a fatality rate of .014-about 1%. It’s probably lower and more in line with Germany and S Korea as many cases are even more mild go unreported.

Furthermore: Worldwide there are 74,779 active cases and 92% , or 68,991 are rated as mild, 5888 are rated as serious, 75,992 have recovered and about 5,850 died.

So until we get a better data set to see how many people are infected (and we may never know as many recover without reporting) at the very least we shouldn’t jump to conclusions and make these projections in the chart.

[WildHighlander57]

Many thanks!

Keep us posted on this!

Will show trend; hopefully “flatten the curve” will come soon.

Prayers UP!!