True as far as the availability of the data isn’t good enough yet but the assumption in this chart is not good data analytics and misleading. Let me try and explain.
Simple put It is making negative assumptions punched into a spreadsheet that are not based on facts.
The fatality rate for COVID 19 is nowhere near as high as some alarmist make it out to be. It is dropping as a % as more test are own and capture those with mild symptoms. That is why no one, repeat ZERO under the age of 10 has died anywhere in the world, including China, Iran or Italy .
As more test are done you will see more confirmed cases but death rate % dropping as it already has started to do that’s because it is more mild than reported for most people and so far only serious cases get counted for the most part.
There will be more deaths, serious yes, it might even surpass the 12,461 deaths in US in 2009 from H7N9 aka swine flu.
Look: The two countries that have done the most testing that can be relied upon is S Korea and Germany , they have tested well over 350,000 and have a combined 12,761 cases and 84 deaths for a fatality rate of .0065 or less than 1%. That is more than the flu but nothing like what some are reporting here and in the news.
As a matter of fact if you add up the top 15 countries with reported cases excluding China, Italy and Iran you get over 35,000 cases and 501 deaths for a fatality rate of .014-about 1%. It’s probably lower and more in line with Germany and S Korea as many cases are even more mild go unreported.
Furthermore: Worldwide there are 74,779 active cases and 92% , or 68,991 are rated as mild, 5888 are rated as serious, 75,992 have recovered and about 5,850 died.
So until we get a better data set to see how many people are infected (and we may never know as many recover without reporting) at the very least we shouldn’t jump to conclusions and make these projections in the chart.
Your comments are very good but I just have one quibble - H7N9 was a bird flu, the 2009 swine flu was H1N1. I was immersed in flu forums at the time so I remember.
The fatality rate for COVID 19 is nowhere near as high as some alarmist make it out to be. It is dropping as a % as more test are own and capture those with mild symptoms.
That is why no one, repeat ZERO under the age of 10 has died anywhere in the world, including China, Iran or Italy .
Look: The two countries that have done the most testing that can be relied upon is S Korea and Germany , they have tested well over 350,000 and have a combined 12,761 cases and 84 deaths for a fatality rate of .0065 or less than 1%. That is more than the flu but nothing like what some are reporting here and in the news.
It takes longer to die than to be detected, and it takes longer to recover than it does to die from this coronavirus, so there is a large overstatement in fatality rate after the initial lags understatement. As we’ve seen in China the past week, there also appears to be a high death rate amongst those cases that linger.
Germany and all of the Nordic countries had two dead between all of them into last week, none in Germany - but if you’d been watching, you’d see they also had almost none recovered. Germany how has 9 dead, but only 46 recovered. S Korea has a recovered:dead ratio of 7:1. Both of those are going to see the rate go down - a lot - as they were understated by the lag to die, and now grossly overstated by the lag to recover.
From March 8 to this morning, China has reported 220 new cases, and 84 deaths. That gives a case mortality rate of over 38% for that week. Do you really believe the mortality rate of the disease has risen so high over the past week? Or have those still sick just still been dying.
China’s *reported* dead/resolved rate of 4.5%, which because they appear to be *nearing the end of the outbreak* is nearing the case mortality rate, is at 4.0%.