Already been passed over by CoronaVirus?

Adam Housley Twitter Account ^ | 3/14/2020 | Adam Housley

[GLDNGUN]

Has the Coronavirus already come and gone for most of the US? Adam Houseley, formerly of FoxNews, says that MAY be the case...

[jimmygrace]

Well, that’s a good point. The Wuhan virus deaths could have been attributed to the flu. Anyway, positive thinking always has more power than they give it credit for!.

[pax_et_bonum]

Only 11 million extra in a week?

That’s nothing!

(Seriously, I didn’t think I needed the /s.)

[BDParrish]

Excuse me buckalfa, but I was not making any point, I was really asking if you would check, because if this true it will blow the minds of virology community.

If there are NO fatal viral pneumonia cases but there is SARS-CoV-2 in the community that would be huge and we need to know that.

Are your hospitals doing the routine CT scans when someone presents with pneumonia? Because everybody knows how sars-like pneumonia appears and believe me everybody is looking for it.

You have any viral pneumonia in your hospitals and clinics that are not getting tested?

“You do not know to look...”
It is routine to do a bronchoalveolar lavage fluid check on serious pneumonia cases. Are they not doing that where your wife works? (Were you the commenter whose wife who was a nurse?)

What is being suggested in this article, could conceivably happen, I get that, but if so then this germ would be WAY, WAY, LESS virulent than we thought and they need to figure out why. The virology of this thing matches the epidemiology as currently reported.

[wardaddy]

My wife had a horrible flu that didn’t test positive for flu B

Nine days

I wonder

[GLDNGUN]

It didn’t?

[lepton]

Only 11 million extra in a week?
That’s nothing!
(Seriously, I didn’t think I needed the /s.)

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I’m sorry. There are some truly and spectacularly innumerate posts on this subject, both generally and on this thread.

:)

[pax_et_bonum]

Lol!

No problem!

What a crazy time - that’s why I’m so thankful to be able to find peace and quiet on any empty WalMart toilet paper aisle!

;-)

[null and void]

This came across my transom:

In WA state, a healthcare testing business received government funding to test sample people with the ordinary flu. They collected about 11,000 samples.
...........
With the new virus, on their own, they went back and tested those samples for COVID-19. They found nealy a hundred actually had COVID-19.
...........
They told the CDC.
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They were informed that those test results were private and that they could not legally tell the patients or even health authorities that they had the virus.
..............
The governor, did nothing, the feds, did nothing. Now it’s too late. They have either recovered, died or passed it on.
............
Evidently, now that there is a “national emergency” they could disclose.
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The UW started a driveby testing program first. Until they were informed that they could only test healthcare workers.
..............
In the future, laws need to change.

5 posted on 3/15/2020, 10:48:10 AM by gandalftb

[pax_et_bonum]

Thanks for posting, nully!

:-)

[JCL3]

Would need an antibody/serology SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19 test to determine that.

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I’d like to get that test along with wifey.
Brought an illness home from work(cube farm with employees having international travel to/from China for all of 2019) in early December that resembles this virus. First time in 10+ years I’d been ill. Shared it with wifey too. Told my Doc that I want the above test when this is all over and tests are on the clearance isle at reduced price.

[tallyhoe]

You have FReepmail.

Yes thanks!

[DennisR]

Maybe a 737, not a 747. Runway is not long enough for 747s. And 737s can only takeoff there....they cannot land. So maybe you just had the wrong model? Bet the boss was not too happy!

[Moonlighter]

The short answer would be good for staters but I’d appreciate any elaboration at your convenience.

[Moonlighter]

You addressed the follow up q about parallels to mutation tracking and varying strains that I hadn’t even asked yet - pretty impressive for a non-expert! It’s rather remarkable scientists have the ability to figure this stuff out.

[BDParrish]

OK, I’ll try. Here goes nuthin’!
Chinese doctors with serious pneumonia cases drew lavage fluids and ran the protein sequence (sanger sequencing.)
Its a bat virus! It is also 99% like a coronavirus in pangolins. (SWISS-MODEL has an online homology-modeling server through ExPASy.org which everyone can use.)

Each host causes a mutation which does show on the subsequent sequencings so the database shows you how many mutations you are from the source. Each mutation is a variation on its immediate predecessor so you can literally draw a line or map of the spread of each iteration.

Farr’s Law governs the spread of the infection in all such pandemics. The IDEA model used today is a modern computer application of that. It is a calculus type equation that gives you a picture of what is happening and prediction of what will happen. The equation depends on a factor constant called R0 (the “R-naught”) which is related to the virology of the germ. Once you have enough data you can guess the R-naught. If you have the R0 then you can draw the rest of the curve into the future. As you get new data you make smaller and smaller corrections to the constant until you know you’ve got it.

Your instincts were correct in asking this question. The premise of the article and the comments on it throughout the thread are contradicted by the curve and by the nature of the virus itself.

If you are of a scientific mind may I suggest an article in The Lancet?
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30251-8/fulltext

I do welcome correction and please forgive my mistakes and my oversimplification.

[gogeo]

There’s constant travel between China and the Puget Sound area.

[Ymani Cricket]

OTOH, that all/winter flu outbreak was widespread enough that research hospitals would have seen the x-rays and CAT scans, and the COVID pattern is distinctive enough that even normal radiologists would have begun picking up on it.

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That makes an assumpton that a radiologist was even used or needed. How many people don't have insurance and don't even go to the doctor uness they are near death? A LOT! Distinct, yes, but we have been told (by CDC etc.) the majority, especially younger may have minor to moderate symptoms and not know they have it. In additon, if outbreaks have occurred in various pockets of contagion flow and in those pockets there are not a sizeable amount of immuno-compromised or elderly w/compromised then the stats are going to be way different than in an area, with say, a lot of "snowbirds" which Washington State is most definitely a snowbird haven, as an example. An area with very few elderly, much less those, with compromised immune systems, would not show a high mortality rate.

And since there was no testing even available for Covid-19 how could they have known what caused a presumed flu death when they did occurr? Not only that but look at the difficulty poeple have had who felt they needed the test but would not be tested unless admitted to a hospital? (i.e. Goldman and his wife)

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Doing these diagnostics is one of the reasons we pay doctors and pay them so much. I’m not so sure it absolutely takes the medical training to distinguish this Wuhan coronavirus from the varieties regular flu, but it at least takes a lot of confirmed examples to do it the rote way. Members of the populace at large don’t get that experience. Not a lot of doctors/RNs/Practitioners/midwives have it in this case.

First of all, see above answer. In addition, no one was expecting it. So who would look for it? Until very recently,there are a lot of radiologists who may want to go back and re examine some cases that they may recall some anomoly that they didn't think much of at the time. Its a busy business. I will have to assume you must understand radiology to some degree for you to make that statement. The average person would not know that much info. But unless you confess to be a radiology expert of sorts, how could you know this?

When asked if you have been out of the country in the last 30 days... that is not a solid indicator. What if you say no because it was 35 days but dont further elaborate? Intake RNs are simply asking required questions. If you say, "no" its the end of the discussion. If you say "yes", but it was 40 days ago and offer to explain, you will get shooed away as wasting their time, when they could have, for future sake of any possibility, especially knowing that there IS the possibility of a deadly virus, chart the answer, in case it needed to be referenced in the future for tracing purposes.

A lot of healthcare people are understaffed and dead tired at the end of 12 hour shifts which often turn into 14 or 16 hour shifts with no f---ing break. So, if you live in some ideal world where everthing works like the textbook, then sure, have it your way. But that is not reality. And how long does the average doctor stay in the room with the patient? Oh, I can tell you, in many cases it is for less than 3 minutes.
I could go on... And add to that that a lot of docs are complete arrogant a-holes who always think they know more than they do (and they criticize nurses for doing the same?? LOL)
But one point being, I have seen in my household before - flu pass person to person over a period of 45 days with 2 to 17 day increments between infection symptoms. Identifiably the same flu, in case you suggest it is/was different.

Remember the original infection patient 0 date when the travel ban was issued was NOT a Nov. date. That makes a huge difference from a Dec date. Why is no one talking about that except here? Explain.

If as many as a thousand people had it in Wuhan, even then, the chance of anyone with it was on a plane to the US was pretty small - and that’s a bit more than a few days to get to the thousand even there.

Again, the original preusmption was a Dec date. Even the Nov date is not a solid as the JPost article states. As my point above about going undetected until it hits the right vulnerable community - it could have lasted months, with few deaths that would have been written off as simple normal flu deaths before notice was taken of a higher mortality rate. As for the chance you mention.

One sneeze in a crowded airport is all it takes to disperse. One sneeze with droplets in the air for 3 hours could potentially infect how many people? Isn't that what we were taught?

Yes, there are a lot of people sharing their experience and that is a good thing. Most don't have a key indicators. My example did , and I can trace it pretty far back. Why would you take so much time to address every single post and poo poo any possibility of any type of pockets of immunity. Why is that important to you? No one, not even Adam Housley is suggesting letting down our guard. But toilet paper panic?? Ludicrous! His twitter feed is long and it is very obvious he is clear headed and cautious, but he is being attacked left and right. Sad.

The greatest experiment in immunology could occurr with all the money that is being used. 8 billion! Large nationwide serological testing could be done to test for immunity. This would alleviate panic. Why does anyone want panic? I can only think of ONE reason. Well, maybe more than one.

[Ymani Cricket]

I can Farr's Law you for what happened in my area. Farr's Law could apply to infected pockets especially in rural areas that became infected from travel to a larger city in, say, a foreign country. See my post in the section about the spread of virus in a non susceptible community (e.g. rural youthful community vs. a suburban retirement community) Now, no one goes to the doctor except maybe one person (in this theoretical community). Covid-19 is not known about yet or taken seriously, no tests available.. only a couple people at the retirement center die, it is written off as death from seasonal flu.

Therefore, the numbers are not counted or considered. Models based on tested only who survive or die vary GREATLY from country to country, from healthcare system to healthcare system. Just look at the models from "swine flu and see the high 10% death rate that was in Brazil compared to ours which was waaaaay less.

The infection spreads through a small community and plays out its course like diagram example. BUT... wait.. what if one person took it to a neighboring city. oops. now we wait to see if it spread right? And Farr's Law reapplys to a new community. So you have pockets flaring up.. The Farr's Law could not apply to the nation as a whole in that example. it would be totally off and look more like a hilly pre mountainous plateau (for a geography analogy of diagram).

[Ymani Cricket]

I have a possible line traced to Vancouver and/or Vancouver Island.

[lepton]

OTOH, that all/winter flu outbreak was widespread enough that research hospitals would have seen the x-rays and CAT scans, and the COVID pattern is distinctive enough that even normal radiologists would have begun picking up on it.

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That makes an assumpton that a radiologist was even used or needed. How many people don’t have insurance and don’t even go to the doctor uness they are near death? A LOT!

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We’re not talking about 50 people or even a hundred. We’re talking about thousands - tens to hundreds of thousands, perhaps millions, had this flu go through during the time period discussed.