Already been passed over by CoronaVirus?

Adam Housley Twitter Account ^ | 3/14/2020 | Adam Housley

[GLDNGUN]

Has the Coronavirus already come and gone for most of the US? Adam Houseley, formerly of FoxNews, says that MAY be the case...

[lepton]

Considering so much international travel, how would a virus which is extremely contagious take months to reach the U.S. from China?

---

Because despite that, not all Chinese visit every town in the US.

The flu works this way every year - taking months to generate in China before it gets to the US and Europe - though it has been moving more quickly compared to a few decades ago.

[lepton]

Your post is pretty good evidence that the virus was not endemic within the population at large out there. Quarantining works, and while nursing homes are as you say “petri dishes”, the inhabitants tend not to go places, and for good or ill even family visits are limited.

NY, on the other hand, has released it into the wild in a big way.

[lepton]

That is the true blunder. Despite decades of planning for a virus X, the CDC and FDA where totally unprepared. The after action reports will be brutal. Heads should roll.

---

The paradox is that one can’t really justify gearing up to that level if it doesn’t happen. And we are no longer the people that survived the Spanish flu, where death was an everyday event, nor even the threat under the Cold War.

Look at the lack of people that kept the recommended 2 weeks of food at home.

[fireman15]

You saw a 747 fall into Lake Washington? Don’t think so. But please provide details.

December 13, 1969. When a 747 lands short in the waters of Lake Washington... it must have been a spectacular sight. Read about it here:

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://www.fss.aero/accident-reports/dvdfiles/US/1969-12-13-US.pdf&ved=2ahUKEwi71-fY25zoAhUPsp4KHS85BSQQFjAVegQICRAB&usg=AOvVaw3d2Z953iR01-gChgqw5aUH

[Fresh Wind]

I talked to a friend who said he had something in late December/Early January. He had a test and they told him it wasn’t the flu, but something that was “flu-like”.

Hmmmm.

[SamAdams76]

I was thinking about this because of the fact that JFK airport alone was receiving several planes an hour from China right through Feb 5, when Trump put in a travel ban from there in early February. It seems crazy to me that the virus was not already in America during the weeks leading up to the ban.

I also remember many people in my office (NYC) coming down with a bad case of the flu during January (right after the New Year). Lot of people were out sick or hacking (coughing) in the office.

[mad_as_he$$]

There are many reports of the same thing happening all over the US.

[bitt]

p

[little jeremiah]

Quote is down near the end of the transcript, soemtime after Seema Verma's statements:

Odd statement POTUS made yesterday re: nat'l emergency.

"Some of the doctors say it will wash through, it will flow through. Interesting terms and very accurate. I think you’re going to find in a number of weeks it’s going to be a very accurate term."https://t.co/cZWtiDUUWE— Lisa Mei Crowley 🐸 (@LisaMei62) March 15, 2020

And again, I’ve said we’re learning a lot for the future and future problems like this, or worse. Or worse. It could get worse. The next eight weeks are critical. We can learn — and we will turn a corner on this virus.

Some of the doctors say it will wash through, it will flow through. Interesting terms and very accurate. I think you’re going to find in a number of weeks it’s going to be a very accurate term.

Remarks by President Trump, Vice President Pence, and Members of the Coronavirus Task Force in Press Conference

[AndyJackson]

The paradox is that one can’t really justify gearing up to that level if it doesn’t happen.

The problem is that bureaucracies don't respond well to exogenous forces. They keep doing what they do including continuing to maintain an inflexible obstructive regulatory stance rather than standing aside and letting those who can and will take initiative do what they will do.

[little jeremiah]

Your comments are very good but I just have one quibble - H7N9 was a bird flu, the 2009 swine flu was H1N1. I was immersed in flu forums at the time so I remember.

[lepton]

The fatality rate for COVID 19 is nowhere near as high as some alarmist make it out to be. It is dropping as a % as more test are own and capture those with mild symptoms.

---

It is dropping a little from that. It is dropping more because more of the cases are getting past the “time it takes to die” into the “time it takes to recover” phase. I suspect they are getting better at treating it as well. If anything the more widespread testing is showing that there is not this enormous pool of undetected infected (*100 or 1000 required for this to be “like the flu) out there.

That is why no one, repeat ZERO under the age of 10 has died anywhere in the world, including China, Iran or Italy .

---

That is completely irrelevant to your point. That no one under age 10 has died even in those places means that there is something about the disease which causes it not to affect them. They appear to even be at *reduced* chance to be infected as well - though there are at least some examples of infection of these young folks.

Look: The two countries that have done the most testing that can be relied upon is S Korea and Germany , they have tested well over 350,000 and have a combined 12,761 cases and 84 deaths for a fatality rate of .0065 or less than 1%. That is more than the flu but nothing like what some are reporting here and in the news.

---

First, you’re doing the math wrong. The fatality rate is based upon dead vs recovered, not a portion of the ill spontaneously exploding.

It takes longer to die than to be detected, and it takes longer to recover than it does to die from this coronavirus, so there is a large overstatement in fatality rate after the initial lags understatement. As we’ve seen in China the past week, there also appears to be a high death rate amongst those cases that linger.

Germany and all of the Nordic countries had two dead between all of them into last week, none in Germany - but if you’d been watching, you’d see they also had almost none recovered. Germany how has 9 dead, but only 46 recovered. S Korea has a recovered:dead ratio of 7:1. Both of those are going to see the rate go down - a lot - as they were understated by the lag to die, and now grossly overstated by the lag to recover.

From March 8 to this morning, China has reported 220 new cases, and 84 deaths. That gives a case mortality rate of over 38% for that week. Do you really believe the mortality rate of the disease has risen so high over the past week? Or have those still sick just still been dying.

China’s *reported* dead/resolved rate of 4.5%, which because they appear to be *nearing the end of the outbreak* is nearing the case mortality rate, is at 4.0%.

[little jeremiah]

What’s Trump supposed to do, run against the doctors? They give him input, they project the disaster, they do so in a way that is highly public. All the actions Trump has taken are justified not only by advice of world and national health authorities, they are also demanded by the press and by his political opponents. “Take action!” they say, or many people will die.

The question then is whether the action is appropriate, and again the opponents are boxed in, because “social distancing” and quarantine are what the doctors and even Trump’s opponents demand must take place.

Trump has faced unexpected and unpredictable issues before, and now, having a grasp of how the government is inept, he will deal with this hand better than any other president would have.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Applause.

[lepton]

Uh, no. The author forgets that we sequence flus.

---

And that is but one of *several* lines of evidence that the flu(s) we had going around last fall are not the Wuhan coronavirus.

[little jeremiah]

Well as of this AM Britain had a death rate of 8% in diagnosed to dead.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Until large numbers of people are tested, the CFR cannot be known, as many people will get mild cases and won’t go to the hospital. Fauci said a couple of days ago that the CFR of wuflu is about .6-1% which is more than average flu but not the freaking black death. Plus almost all fatalities are the elderly with co-morbities.

[thecodont]

Right across from Kaiser Permanente Hospital.

Exactly. They got rid of a huge health hazard. Who knows but they may be planning to put test/triage tents up over there (at they did at UCSF) if they have to.

[lepton]

We walked in and the nurse said “DONT TOUCH ANYTHING. Even our staff who got flu shots are all getting sick.”

---

Typically health providers get their shots first. This year the first vaccine was the wrong one. They’re never 100% effective anyways.

[DouglasKC]

Only time will tell us about this outbreak. Both investigation and voluntary isolation will play important parts. I read your original reply as stating that the speculation of lying by the Chinese and earlier US exposure was not possible. Did I misunderstand your intent?

As I understood it the thrust of the article was that the Virus has already circulated throughout the United States and that we've already gone through and passed the worst of it. That's certainly NOT true because if it were we would have been experiencing what other countries are...mass sickness and overwhelming of hospitals. There's no escaping that without some type of measures to mitigate it.

I do think that the virus is already here in larger numbers than we know and this will be revealed as testing becomes more widespread.

[thecodont]

Exactly. They got rid of a huge health hazard. Who knows but they may be planning to put test/triage tents up over there (at they did at UCSF) if they have to.

Whoops.

Bay Area coronavirus updates: Two UCSF health care workers have coronavirus

https://www.sfgate.com/bayarea/article/Bay-Area-coronavirus-updates-Contra-Costa-County-15129171.php

[null and void]

I'm willing for this to be true. At the nully hacienda we all started getting sick after a couple trips to the local international airport to drop off and pick up mom at the gate for a Christmas/New Years family visit.

Low grade intermittent fevers, mild coughs, congestion, malaise, etc.

We've all pretty much recovered, even my 91 year old mother who is just too stubborn to succumb...

Bring Out Your Dead

Post to me or FReep mail to be on/off the Bring Out Your Dead ping list.

The purpose of the “Bring Out Your Dead” ping list (formerly the “Ebola” ping list) is very early warning of emerging pandemics, as such it has a high false positive rate.

The false positive rate was 100%.

At some point we may well have a high mortality pandemic, and likely as not the “Bring Out Your Dead” threads will miss the beginning entirely.

*sigh* Such is life, and death...

If a quarantine saves just one child's or one old fart’s life, it's worth it.