Wow, I’m impressed...you had the courage to hazard guess. Travis McGee lacked your courage, he danced around it.
And I also hope your estimates turn out to be too high.
I do believe that we need to take precautions - not panic, this isn't the black plague and we have the means and knowledge to minimize this
Italy screwed up (hindsight is always 20 20) by:
1. Not limiting contact - they gave kids two weeks off and they went and partied at discos etc. and on holidays - spreading the disease
2. they didn't change their ways (lots of kissing, physical contact)
It's the same in Spain
But Look at Finland -- 244 cases and the finns HATE physical contact closer than 5 feet :)
Also - I look at the numbers for India (which has much lower hygiene than other areas) and it has just 2 deaths and 160 cases, all of which were contracted abroad
This tells me that this is a question of limiting physical contact, waiting for hot weather and protecting the old.