there may be as most cases are mild and not reported. infection rate will go up and fatality rate is already coming down.
the fatality rate is nowhere near as high as some alarmist make it out to be. That is why no one, zero under the age of 10 has died anywhere in the world.
The country that has done the most testing that can be relied upon is S Korea , they have tested well over 250,000 and have 7,869 cases and 66 deaths for a fatality rate of .008 or less than 1%. That is more than the flu but nothing like what some are reporting here and in the news.
As a matter of fact if you add up the top 15 countries with reported cases excluding China, Italy and Iran ) you get over 20,446 cases and 247 deaths for a fatality rate of .012-about 1%. Probably lower and more in line with S Korea as many cases are even more mild. As more test are done you will see more confirmed cases and death rate dropping as it already has started to do that’s because it is more mild than reported for most people.
A really bad flu year is a 0.14% fatality rate so .80% for COVID-19 is 5.8 times worse than regular flu.
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/2017-2018.htm
Coronabona
One of the things you have to keep in mind with the SKorean numbers is that the 0.8 is a floor. Few cases have been resolved yet. Most are still sick and that number will likely go up.
The low rate represents how quickly it spread.
But SKorea has done an amazing job testing.
I’ll point out a couple of observations (based on Germany and Europe):
1. Of the five dead Germans, four of them were having health issues before Coronavirus ever came along (bad heart, frail, diabetes, etc).
2. From the original 14 from this one town in Bavaria, all them noted that they had roughly seven days of harsh-regular flu, and by the 10th day...were back to normal. All were under the age of 60.
3. German doctors refuse to put anyone into a hospital quarantine situation unless you are in serious jeopardy (secondary conditions). All of the infected crowd are mostly given home-quarantine for two weeks, then re-tested. This system has proven to work. Generally...85-percent of infected folks are on the home-quarantine route.
4. The high numbers in Italy? There is some belief that the higher numbers of older Italians (more than most other European countries)...set up a collusion course where the hospital system in Italy was the dumping ground for them, and they simply didn’t have the nurses, beds or resources to cover the significant number showing up. Just saying the whole country has X-number of beds doesn’t matter...if you live in one region with 3,000 people coming up each day on the new infection list. That region will have only a percentage of the beds possible, and the number of nurses just can’t cover that many sick people.
5. Finally, the blunt truth is that there is no wonder drugs, no therapy, or vaccine on the horizon. Your only option is to use the sports philosophy of ‘delay-delay-delay’ by practicing good hygiene, limiting public contact, and if in the 85-percent group....do plain regular quarantine at home.
Great post! Living in Washington State, the overreaction by Democrat officials is nuts.
Even the underestimating CDC number for fatality rate is climbing. Low of 3.4% on 3/7, now 3.7% on 3/13
“infection rate will go up and fatality rate is already coming down.”
The real fatality rate can’t be gauged until the virus has run its course. Only then can you get a true measurement of the fatality rate when deaths to total recoveries can be calculated. Right now globally the death to recovery rate is running near 7%